Tag Archives: Trade Deadline

Trade Deadline Drama!

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Happy Friday Giants’ fans. The team just enjoyed it’s first day off in quite some time, and now gets to play a few games on the road while the front office decides the fate of the roster. Should be an exciting week.

I am about to head out for two weeks of vacation, so I won’t be able to say much about the happenings (whatever they might be ) until well after the fact. So, let’s talk about the crossroads the Giants stand at today.

The great debate in Giants-world on the old-twitter machine has focused on whether the Giants should go for it or not. The thinking goes: why punt on this fantastic turn of events. Stand pat, or even “buy,” and see if this magic translates into a Wild Card Run.

There are nostalgic reasons for this. It’s Bochy’s last season. It might be one last time for Bumgarner and Posey, et al, to get a shot, together, at the World Series. It would be good times!

There are pragmatic reasons. While building for the future is prudent, attendance is way down, the Warriors are moving down the street, football is about to start, and everyone is going to forget about the Giants unless they start winning again.

Finally, there’s the “no-one-knows-what-tomorrow-may-bring” mentality, which argues that no one knows what tomorrow may bring. All you know is you have a shot at 2019. GO FOR IT and figure out 2020 when you get there.

On the other side of this debate is the reality that the Giants are stuck in long-term contract purgatory. They have an aging core that probably is not going to get better in the next few years. Their farm system is improving, but a lot of the talent is in the lower levels and still developing. And finally, the Giants have assets that other teams covet: CASH THAT ISH IN!

I understand and resonate with elements of both sides of this debate, but both sides fail to understand a couple of critical realities about our new Giants Wizard Farhan Zaidi.

Critical Reality Number 1: Farhan cares about one thing only, and that is the constant improvement of the Giants roster and system. This means that on any given day, or week, or season, he is evaluating moves based on that fact.

Now, I know what you are thinking, this is the mission of every executive. Yes, and no. What I am trying to say is Farhan does not think in binary, “do-I-buy-or-sell, categories. He evaluates every move by “do we get better.” Some moves help the Giants gets better now, and some moves help them get better in the long-term.

What this means is: he might keep Bumgarner, he might trade Will Smith for someone who can plug right into the starting rotation/lineup, he might flip Jeff Samardzija for financial flexible, and he might trade Sam Dyson for a prospect.

In other words he might do everything, or nothing, or some combination. And it won’t stop ever.

This is the significant difference from the previous regime. Now, this is not meant to disparage Brian Sabean and co. Dude build a winning team from 1997-2005 around a Super Star, and then built a 3 time champion after that. That is a serious resume.

But it was, in general, a more static approach to roster building. While successful in its time, it doesn’t quite work like that anymore.

Critical Reality Number 2: Because of Farhan’s approach it is entirely the team gets better for the final two months of 2019 and into the future. This will require some shrewd maneuvering, a little luck, and, likely, an unpopular move or two. And it’s also more likely that his moves benefit the 2020 Giants and beyond.

But the bottom line is it is time for Giants’ fans to leave behind static, binary thinking. That’s now how Farhan operates, and if you really want to follow along you’ll have to let that kind of thinking go.

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July…Deadline…Fork in the Road

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Hello. It’s been a while. We’re back (hopefully) for the remainder of the season.

So, let’s recap, real quick.
The Giants were ok, then they were terrible, then they got good.

What is happening?!

We are now 100 games into the season, and the team is 50-50, and because the NL is quite mediocre after the Dodgers (sorry Braves), the Giants are VERY much in the thick of the NL wild card race. (2.5 games out to be factual).

So, what does this mean?

  1. One thing it means is that the veterans are playing like their normal selves for the most part. Evan Longoria was lighting the world on fire before getting hurt. Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt, have not been lighting the world on fire, but they’ve been pretty good for a few weeks now! Jeff Samardzija might be the best starting pitcher on the team (no, not really, but he’s been good). Mark Melancon is a fully functioning relief pitcher again. This what you should always have been rooting for because this makes all of these guys suddenly trade-able (more on this later).
  2. One other thing it means is that all of Farhan Zaidi’s crazy roster churning has started to pay off. Some of us may have known that Austin Slater was always the answer (wink), but no one saw Alex Dickerson, Mike Yazstremski, Zack Green, etc, coming. I’m getting more and more excited about the guys who show up now because the one’s who have been coming recently are doing good things.

And then what does this mean for the trade deadline, the rest of the season, and the future?

  1. It might mean they don’t trade Madison Bumgarner. Frankly, I’d be a little surprised if it happened at this point. It always felt like an inevitability, but there is something to be said for keeping him, giving him the qualifying offer, and re-signing him or letting him go and recouping a draft pick. In other words, there is still a way to loose Bumgarner and get something back.
  2. It might mean the buy, sell, or buy and sell at the deadline. You know they are going to make moves, there’s no way Zaidi sits on his hands. It’s going to be an exciting next 9 days. Pay attention!
  3. The number of guys the Giants could move actually goes up. Again, Samardzija is an interesting case. He might not bring much back, but if the Giants can get out from under his contract (or any other of their albatross deals) they will, and Jeff pitching well helps a lot.

What should happen?

  1. Trade Bumgarner ONLY if someone backs up a Brinks truck and says: “take whatever you want.” They don’t NEED to trade him, let teams come, drive the price up, and if there’s something they like, go for it. But this trade should not happen under pressure.
  2. Trade Will Smith. Look, I like Will Smith. I will go to my grave believing Bochy should have kept him in in Game 4 of 2016 Cubs series. But, his trade value is pure gold, cash it in.
  3. Trade Sam Dyson. See point 2 but even more so. The Giants bullpen has been a huge strength, and that was just reinforced by the Mets series, but I think the Giants can move Melancon to the 9th, Moronta to Dyson’s spot, bump some other guys around and still have a bullpen they can compete with.
  4. Trade Samardzija only if someone takes on all the money.

As fun as this team is right now, and believe me I’ve indulged the Bochy-riding-off-into-the-sunset-with-one-more-playoff-run fantasy, but it feels a bit like fools gold.

The offense has been better, but it’s still not great, and a far cry from the Dodgers/Astros/Twins/Yankees/A’s/Red Sox world.

The starting pitching is fine, but it’s not dominant, and it doesn’t feel sustainable.

The bullpen is great, but that’s where they can get better for the future, by trading away some of their weapons.

The one thing, though, that is awesome is that the Giants are going to be interesting for the next couple of months. And that, really, is all we could have asked for coming in to this season.

Game On! #sfgiants #weekinreview

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Holy smokes a lot happened this week with our beloved baseball club. Let’s recap:

  • After a heart warming sweep of the first place Diamondbacks, the Giants road-woes came right up and slapped them across the face. They dropped 3 games in Colorado, managing to score a grand total of 3 runs in those 3 games. That’s basically getting shut out for 3 straight games in any other park. Then, they had a somewhat frustrating split against the Cardinals, frustrating because the series marked the return of two pitchers who were supposed to help (more on this later).
  • Joe Panik got hurt and is on the DL, probably for a while. This makes us all sad, but it also forces us to face the harsh reality that Joe Panik is not having a good season, and it may be in the Giants best interest to let Alen Hanson play everyday. Hanson has been far superior with the bat, and I think he makes them a better, more dangerous team for now. Nonetheless, get well Joe!
  • The Giants welcomed back Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. My pre-season naming of Cueto as the MOST IMPORTANT player this season, still stands in many ways. If he can be good from here on out, the Giants have a puncher’s chance. He was not very good in his start on Thursday, however, and there will be a dance the rest of the season around when to pull the plug. If he continues to stink (and the Giants fall out of contention), he’ll go back on the DL and the Giants will hope he can heal up for 2019. If they stay in the race and Cueto can give them anything positive, he’ll hang in the rotation as long as they need him. Meanwhile, Samardzija showed signs of life in his return, but he still hasn’t looked better than some of the other options available to the team.
  • Speaking of that, the Giants went ahead and kept both Andrew Suarez and Derek Rodriguez in the rotation and that sure looks like a good idea. Chris Stratton was sent back to Sacramento to keep pitching every 5th day and try to get some consistency back in his curveball and location. I hate to say it, but he has not been the same since becoming a dad.
  • The Giants sent Derek Holland to the bullpen, even though he had been one of the most consistent starters recently, and they continue to carry 13 pitchers on the roster. Some of this is due to having a high number of pitchers who require baby gloves at this point. The Giants don’t want Cueto or Samardzija throwing 100+ pitches right now, so that means it is wise to have Holland and Blach in the bullpen. But also, Will Smith and Mark Melancon (and now Ray Black) need to be managed in how often they are used, since they are still building up strength coming off injuries. I can’t remember a staff that had so many issues like this.
  • Speaking of Will Smith he is finally the closer and he’s been nasty so far and DANG IT BOCHY WHY WASN’T HE THE CLOSER IN 2016.
  • And then (I told you it was quite the week) the Giants made a trade yesterday. They FINALLY got rid of Cody Gearrin (hallelujah), and shipped out the suddenly redundant and underused OF Austin Jackson. In order to do this, the Giants sweetened the pot by including pitcher Jason Bahr. Bahr is a guy who created some buzz this season, and seems like a nice prospect, but the Giants have traded away a lot of buzzy prospects who were never heard from again. This move is a win, in my mind, because it creates “cap” space, gets rid of two guys who were no longer useful and created space for the Giants to see what they have with Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, Steven Duggar, Ray Black, and maybe another bullpen arm or two before this is all said and done.
  • You read that right: Steven Duggar is here! Sounds like the Giants will use him and Hernandez interchangeably in CF, but then Gorkys just pulled a muscle, so we may get a good stretch from Duggar, which is excellent news.
  • That was a lot! Somehow, in the midst of all this roster churn and losing (2-5 on the week), the Giants are still only 3.5 games out of first in the NL West.

Which brings us to the question: what does this all mean? The Giants are still very much in this thing in 2018. They are finally at “full strength” in their starting rotation, the bullpen is pretty good, and they should (in theory) be able to score enough to be competitive.

One could look at the trade as a step towards more moves to strengthen the squad for the stretch run.

Or, are the Giants coming to grips with the reality that they are a bit lucky to be 47-45 (with that ugly -27 =/-), and it’s time to get ready for next year?

It feels more like the latter. Here’s my take:

  1. The Giants brass realize this is a down year in the NL West and so are willing to give the Cueto’s of the world an opportunity to make a run. Who knows maybe they get hot and sneak into the playoffs this season. So, they are not going to blow the whole thing up, but they are going to want to see and invest time in the guys who might be around next year.
  2. They’ve made one trade to make sure they stay beneath the tax threshold (the “cap”) so that they can be sure to reset and go into the offseason with a clean slate. This will allow them to extend Bumgarner, pursue Bryce Harper, or do whatever it is they want to do with their “extra” money to get younger and better.
  3. Now, to the big rumor: there are more moves probably coming. Word is the only Giants’ who are off-limits this July are Posey and Crawford. That means Bumgarner, Belt, your favorite prospect, whoever, is on the table!
  4. I don’t think the Giants are going to trade Belt/Bum/etc, unless someone fills AT&T park with gold and prospects. What this means, though, is that Giants will listen. They want to get a good sense of what a different future could look like, and shopping will allow them to do this.

So, hang on tight Giants fans, the next 3+ weeks are going to be very interesting.

Trade Deadline Quick Thoughts

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The Dodgers are a demon-monster of a 25 man roster. They are coming for your soul and your children and they will show no mercy.

The Giants didn’t do a whole lot at the deadline, which is basically what everyone had come to accept about a week ago, and in its own way is a terrible indictment on the state of this franchise.

They are too good to be this bad. Not good enough to offload anyone. Stuck in neutral. Which, compared to the Dodgers, means moving backwards.

When the Giants blew game 4 to the Cubs last year I was not crushed. It was not 2002 or 1993 or 2003 or 1997 or 2000 or 1998 or 1987 or 2004.

Part of the reason I was not crushed was because of the entirely predictable nature of the choke. This was not the Warriors going scoreless during the final 4+ minutes of a Game 7. This was a good team with a bad bullpen letting its season slip away thanks to a bad bullpen.

At the time I wrote: Mark Melancon and we’re good. Or something like that.

And then that’s exactly what the Giants did.

Which is to say, part of the reason I wasn’t crushed is I expected the Giants to be right back there again, but with a weakness addressed and solidified.

But the further the wheels fall of this wagon, the more I wish for the chance to see a game 5.

Partly because I do wonder about a hangover from that type of defeat. It feels like all the wind that got sucked out of the sails has just continued to be sucked. (I really enjoy that sentence).

But also partly because it may be a long while before we see the postseason again.

There is a magnificent gap between the Giants and the Dodgers right now. It’s evident on the 25 man roster, the 40 man roster,in  the minor league systems, and in the ways these teams are going about constructing rosters.

You don’t erase that kind of gap with a few tweaks here and there. And that is a major concern.

That having been said, I get the impression from some parts of the internet that this season is validation for why the 2010, 2012, 2014 were “lucky”. Or some version of that. In essence: those teams weren’t very good, they got by with a great manager and a couple awesome performances.

This really bothers me. Without doing a deep dive, it is important to remember that the 2010 team had one of the best pitching staffs top to bottom of any team in the last 20+ years.

The 2012 team was balanced and took the “put the ball in play” philosophy to maximum heights (by the way, the 2014-2015 Royals did the same thing).

The 2014 team is the one championship that fits the general argument being made, but folks forget that that team was the best team in baseball through the first 80 or so games (not unlike the 2016 Giants).

Dynasties fade. The Phillies were incredible from 2008-2012 and now they are deep in a rebuild. The 2017 Cardinals are a slightly better version of the Giants, but are still struggling through a transition period. The Patriots and Warriors will one day go through this as well.

The crash doesn’t make what came before illegitimate, it just means an era is over.

The question for the Giants is how closed is this era, and who will be around for the next one?

Whoa There Giants…(aka Week [17] In Review) #sfgiants #tradedeadline

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What a roller coaster of emotions the past week, days, hours, even minutes have been.

Let’s try to recap, even as news is still unfolding:

  • Some thought the bottom of the Giants tailspin was a 1-8 post all-star break  start, culminating in a dud of an AL East road trip. No the bottom it turns out was coming home and immediately losing 4 of 5, including 2 to the lame-o Reds.
  • In the middle of that the Giants made a move. Finally. They bolstered the hapless lineup, acquiring jack of all-trade 2016 All-Star, Eduardo Nunez from the Twins (we’ll get to what the Giants gave up in a moment). A nice move. Not splashy, but helpful, and it’s already paid dividends (the Giants lineup just feels better with him in the lead off spot).
  • Then the Giants turned it around a bit, winning on Saturday and Sunday. They got middling efforts from their 4th and 5th starters (Peavy and Cain), and GREAT efforts from the bullpen. They scored just enough runs to win, and win they did, to regain a bit of life, hope, momentum, and most-importantly another game back on their lead over the Dodgers.
  • Now, to today: the infamous trade deadline. Word came in on the way home from Costco that the Giants acquired Will Smith (so many Will Smith jokes), for…well, again, we’ll get to that in a minute. Anyways, Smith helps the bullpen for sure, and will be around for a couple of years (also true of Nunez, a fact that might be important here in a few moments).
  • Currently word is coming in that the Giants have probably, hopefully, indeed acquired Matt Moore from the Rays for a couple more…WE’RE GOING TO GET THAT IN A MINUTE OK.

For now, let’s say this: the Giants improved everything. A decent hitter who can play multiple positions and who works off the bench or in the starting lineup, and who will be around for another year? Win.

A good, young bullpen arm who gets out left handers and misses bats at an elite level, and who will be under team control for another 3 years? Win.

A good, young starting pitcher who is left-handed (we see you Dodgers), and who is a VAST improvement over the current version of Matt Cain and Jake Peavy, and who will also be under team control for the next 3 years? Big Win.

…Except…

Oh, what price did the Giants just pay?

  • For Nunez: Adalberto Mejia, who seemed to project as a mid/back-end rotation piece (think more Samardzija than Cueto), but, most importantly, was the closest guy in the Giants system to helping at the big league level. Not the most painful price, but it means the Giants have some confidence in Cain and Suarez being able to hold down the 5th spot for the foreseeable future.
  • For Smith: now we’re getting pricey…the Giants gave up last years #1 pick, Phil Bickford, a strikeout maven and Andrew Susac (remember him!). Giving up a number one pick for a relief pitcher seems insane, but these days this is how it goes. What was most disappointing for me, hearing the news in the car, was the thought that Bickford could have brought a bigger catch. Could he have helped the Giants acquire Chris Sale? Andrew Miller? Or what about Matt Moore?
  • Which brings us to Matt Moore: the deal is not completely finalized, so I’m writing commentary that is still based on speculation. But it looks like Moore for 1B Chris Shaw (best power bat in the system, expendable given the extension of Brandon Belt), Lucious Fox (not a guy I was in love with, but after years of the Giants finishing second on international players, here was one we actually got!), and wait for it…………………………Matt Duffy. Gulp.

There are two ways to skin this cat:

  • You are super ticked. I get it. You love Matt Duffy (the Duffman), you love his fat cat, you love his goatee, and he seems to embody all the best qualities we’ve seen in the Giants over the past 6 seasons. He was the final piece of the golden era infield puzzle!
  • Phil Bickford, you don’t care too much about, but damn, how do you trade a top pick/prospect for a relief pitcher?
  • A power bat (Chris Shaw)! The Giants actually have one of those?! Come on.**
  • And then, Mejia, we’ve been hearing about him for a while now, how come he never got a shot? How could he be worse than Peavy/Cain?
  • Conclusion: this was too much…way too much.

Counter point:

  •  Matt Duffy came out of no where. Remember, we are not that far removed from a Pablo Sandoval extension, which was then the Casey McGehee era. Two years ago, Matt Duffy was Kelby Tomlinson. Turning him into Matt Moore is a golden move.
  • Plus, there’s the not-so-small issue of Duffy’s achilles. The Giants have been taking it slow with him because they feared a Kevin Frandsen redux moment. Blowing out the achilles can be a career ender. Before the Moore deal, Nunez was here, in part, as Duffy insurance.
  • All the other pieces traded were prospects, and prospects are prospects. Meaning, you don’t know. We all lamented the Zach Wheeler for Carlos Beltran deal, but Wheeler, who could still be quite good, has struggled with injuries, including Tommy John. He hasn’t done much since 2011 (?!). You don’t know how those guys will turn out…it’s all projections.
  • Also, the Giants did all this without moving the two pieces that I most covet and look forward to seeing on the big league club someday: Pitcher, Tyler Beede, and INF Christian Arroyo. Arroyo has always been the real answer to the golden infield question***, and Beede was the first round strikeout maven before Bickford was drafted. The cupboard is not bare, and to improve every facet of the team in the meanwhile is kind of amazing.

My official take: wow, that was expensive. But it was bold. The biggest development in the Giants front-office since Bobby Evans took over is the boldness. This team went hard after Zack Grienke. Then it got Cueto AND Samardzija. Now all these trades.

This is a boldness that is about cashing in on the prime years of Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Bumgarner. The Giants have arguably the best starting pitcher, catcher, shortstop, and first basemen in the NL (Arguably, calm down people). There is no need to wait for the “window” to open. It’s wide open.

Of course, the other side of this prime window could be ugly. We all remember 2006, 2007, 2008. Ugly. But this team is going to be competing for the World Series this year, and next year, and the year after that, and probably the year after that. Enjoy it. Embrace it. This kind of thing doesn’t happen often in the history of a franchise.

My only concern and criticism is that this does feel like a Bonds-era kind of boldness. The Giants have succeeded incredibly well by going in the opposite direction: trusting their own guys, and making smaller, but excellent, moves to bolster areas of need.

And then there’s this:

The Giants have also succeeded mightily with their fabled “chemistry.” Did they just ruin it?

My counter to my own criticism is that the Bonds era was an era of urgency, and so is this one. Now is the time. Chemistry is not an issue in a clubhouse ruled by Bochy and Posey and Pence. So, well done Bobby Evans.

**Note: Chris Shaw is not involved. The Giants still have thier power bat. The other prospect there is Michael Santos, who I know nothing about =)

***

A Whole Lot of Nothing

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2 basic premises: (1) We have no idea what kind of conversations were going on behind closed doors over the past week. The Giants might have been offered absolute peanuts for their players. (2) The Giants’ collapse has been swift and unexpected and perhaps the front office was simply caught off guard by the sudden need to make huge, important, and non-sentimental decisions about players they have strong feelings for.

But man, it sure seems like (1) Sabean was asking for the moon (scroll to the bottom of this) and (2) the Giants front office was too soft.

Question(s): will we laugh at our July 31, 2013 selves next year, when this team is clicking again and everything is great, or will always wonder what we might have gotten back for a Hunter Pence or a Javier Lopez? Or will we simply be satisfied with some draft picks when Pence and Lincecum spurn the Giants for free agency?

Maybe I just wanted something more interesting to write about but I was hoping for prospects today. I got none.

Watch, they are going to get hot now.