Tag Archives: tim lincecum

Baseball is Coming!

Posted on by

We are just a few days away from Valentine’s, Ash Wednesday/Lent, and, oh yeah, pitchers and catchers reporting.

While I have no earth shattering insights today as we stand on the precipice of a new season, a couple of random thoughts to hopefully get us a bit more excited about what lies ahead:

  1. The PECOTA system, one of the better projection models for baseball, thinks that the Giants will win 84 games and be the second wild card team. They are high on Johnny Cueto having a bounce back season (and Bumgarner/Cueto/Samardzija being very good), which brings us back to what I said a few weeks ago. For the Giants to be good in 2018, Cueto needs to meet his PECOTA projections. Please.
  2. The Giants made another move, by signing Derek Holland to a minor league deal, and there are still many other options out there for pitching depth. Holland was pretty terrible last year, but has been good for the most part during his career when healthy. He also has sported one of the greatest mustaches of all time. holland_stache
  3. I’m not sure how the money and roster moves would work out, but I’d be more than willing to open 2018 with Holland as the 5th starter if he shows anything during camp. His best is a close approximation to Matt Moore’s best (sorry to open that wound), but he will be way cheaper than Moore was ever going to be this year.
  4. Speaking of the 2010 World Series, Tim Lincecum is making another comeback and the Giants are interested. I’m interested too, because IT’S FREAKING TIMMY, COME ON, but also because I still believe in a Lincecum renaissance as a multi-inning bullpen weapon. How even-year-magic would it be if Lincecum turned into a poor man’s Chris Devenski and helped the Giants make another run?
  5. Finally, Fan Fest was this past weekend and how good does Andrew McCutchen look in orange and black? (Answer: real good)920x920
Advertisement

Week [6] In Review (5/9-5/15) #sfgiants #weekinreview

Posted on by

There was more awe than odd this week (see last week’s week-in-review), as the Giants exacted some revenge against the Arizona Diamondbacks, sweeping them in Phoenix (in 4 games) having been swept in SF by the same D-Backs earlier in the season.

Many positives abound, most notably the marked improvement of Jake Peavy and Matt Cain. Cain, in particular, looks like he’s figured something out. He may never be vintage Matt Cain again, but we’ll take this version, especially as the fifth starter.

That said, the odd factor has not gone away. The defense continues to lapse at times, Posey went ice-cold for a while, and the bullpen perplexities persist. And the oddest story of the year, in some ways, came from the bullpen this week when Santiago Casilla and Bruce Bochy had a very public disagreement.

It hasn’t exactly been pretty, but the Giants are riding a five game win streak and now have a 1 game lead in the division. It still feels like they have much better baseball ahead of them, and if they continue to get good starts they could really put together a nice streak once some of these other issues get ironed out.

Time for a quick ode to Tim Lincecum. All signs are pointing to him signing on with the oh-so-detestable Los Angles Angels of Anaheim, which makes a lot of sense, but now that we are actually at the moment, it feels weird. And I am a little sad.

Timmy was always our Timmy, good or bad, and more than anyone else was at the forefront of the great Giants turnaround.

Over my years as a Giants fan I can remember Scott Garrelts taking a no-hitter to the 9th inning. I remember Big Daddy Reuschel and Dave Dravecky. I loved the emergence of Shawn Estes. I saw Livan Hernandez and Russ Ortiz spin some magic. I took Jason Schmidt in the first round of a fantasy draft, and I won that season. I watched him strike out 16 guys. We finally had an ace.

I lived and died with Barry Zito.

I remember well the debut of Matt Cain. The epic battle against Todd Helton. I watched Cain’s perfect game and Jonathan Sanchez’s no-hitter and all of the greatness of Madison Bumgarner.

But, for me, the best game I ever watched by a Giants pitcher was Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS when Lincecum dominated the Atlanta Braves. He gave up a leadoff double and at that point, right out of the gate, all the horrible playoff memories came flooding back: the Giants would turn into pumpkins…again. But then he got out of it, and at that point it was pretty much over. I will never forget that game because it was awesome, in and of itself, but it was also a foreshadowing of what was to come: this was not 1989 or 93 or 97 or 2000 or 02 or 03 or 04. This was something different.

And it was.

Thank you Timmy!

Week in Review: 1 of 3 against Toronto at home, and then the road sweep of Arizona in 4. 22-18 overall, 1 game lead in NL West.

Hitter of the Week: The Giants had a pretty poor week with the bats, which makes the 5-2 result a bit surprising, but there were some highlights. Denard Span got it going, and had, easily, the best average of any of the regulars. Buster Posey started to come out of his slump and actually had 2 significant moments this: walking in the game winning run on Wednesday, and then his big game winning double on Saturday.

But, the hitter of the week will go to Joe Panik. He only hit .222, but he is showing signs of heating up, and he his two home run week puts him at 5 for the season, a very interesting development. What if Joe Panik can hit for power?

Brandon Crawford grew into some power, and while we would still prefer to see Panik hitting .300 and getting on base a ton, the added pop is kind of nice.

Pitcher of the Week: I’ve been very forthright with my unabashed desire for Matt Cain to be good again, so I will stop apologizing for that, but ole’ Matt earned it this week:

  • 15 IP, only 15 baserunners allowed, to the tune of a 1.80 ERA, and, in true Matt Cain style, went 0-1 (the team went 1-1).

This is significant development, and it looks like Cain is starting to break through the 5 inning barrier as well. The big questions for Cain moving forward: is this the ceiling, and if so can he do this consistently, or can he continue to get better?

Looking Ahead: A much needed day off today, and then this becomes a week to curse the scheduling gods a bit: 3 games in San Diego (one of the worst offenses in baseball) where the Giants will send their 3 best pitchers to the mound, and then 3 games at home against the Cubs (the best offense in baseball) where the Giants will send Peavy, Cain, and Bumgarner to the bump. Imperative that the Giants keep the wins coming in SD.

See you next Monday.

 

Week [4] In Review (4/25-5/1) #sfgiants #weekinreview

Posted on by

Over the last seven days the Giants won 4 games, all of them started by pitchers named Madison, Johnny, and Jeff. They lost two, started by Jake and Matt.

Unfortunately, for the foreseeable future, this is how things look: positivity with the first three pitchers in the rotation taking the hill and closed-eyes/wishful thinking with the last two.

Between Peavy and Cain, I still hold out far more hope for Matt Cain. There’s a lot to suggest, just from the visuals, that he can still be a very effective pitcher, if not the dominant front-line starter he once was. The velocity is good, the movement is there, we are simply watching a guy relearn how to pitch. He lacks the touch and finish and polish that a pitcher his age and experience would normally have. I think this is due to his “new” elbow. I can’t predict when, but I do sense he will figure it out.

Peavy, though, I have far less hope for. McCovey Chronicles point out that it wasn’t that long ago that Peavy was good and producing well for the Giants. It’s a fine point, but the writing seems to be on the wall that end of the line is not too far off for this proud veteran. I lived in Boston when Peavy was pitching there and when he was traded to the Giants Red Sox fans thought he was done then. His reunion-with-Bochy inspired renaissance has been nice, but if the Giants want to make a change in the rotation it needs to be here.

Now, there are two significant challenges: both Cain and Peavy are getting paid very well this season, whether they perform or not. The notion of sunk costs dictates giving them more time to figure it out. Furthermore, it has been pointed out that no one in the minors is really setting the world on fire right now. The veteran loving front office isn’t going to turn it’s back on an old warrior unless someone is knocking loudly on that door, and no one is doing that right now.

All of this has led to wild speculation about Tim Lincecum, and while that might sound nice, do we really want to go down that road again?

One final note here: the Giants are tied for first place, and another good week could see them alone atop the division. There’s no rush, no reason to panic.

My entirely boring conclusion then is that Giants fans need to hope Peavy and Cain figure it out. Even if you don’t look forward to the days they pitch, they are the best option for the foreseeable future. Get used to it.

Week in Review: swept three games from the Padres (which helped salvage a .500 h0mestand), and then took one of three in New York. 13-13 overall, tied for first in the NL West.

Hitter of the Week: Hunter Pence put up a monster slash line this week .421/.500/895 with a double, triple, two home runs, and 10 runs driven in. Seemed like he had been quiet early on, but he’s actually having an extremely good season. Projecting out: he’d finish with a .293 average, 30 home runs, and 120 rbi if he keeps up this pace. That’s a BIG year.

Pitcher of the Week: Madison Bumgarner has “struggled” early on, but he’s also pitched once with the flu, and faced off against Kershaw (twice), Grienke, and then young phenom Noah Syndergard on Sunday. All to the tune of a 3-2 record, a 3.03 ERA, and 45 strikeouts in just 35 innings. He is allowing too many baserunners, and he continues to say he hasn’t found his good mechanics, but he still had a great week wining both of his starts in commanding fashion.

Looking Ahead: The Giants don’t have a day off again until May 16th, which means a couple of full weeks. This week they have three in Cincinnati, then it’s back home for four with Colorado. Theoretically, there are a lot of winnable games this week with 2 Cueto and 2 Samardzija starts to look forward to.

Week 1 [In Review] #SFGiants #WeekInReview

Posted on by

Heading into opening week, hoping for a 4-3 start seemed reasonable. Even with the rotation uncertainty right out of the gate, it still felt like the Giants could steal 2 out of 3 in Arizona and then split in San Diego. The San Diego split was predicated on the Giants being able to win the Hudson and Bumgarner starts. The only game it appeared that the Giants would be overmatched in was Sunday’s tilt between Peavey and Tyson Ross.

Welp.

The plan was holding true to form through Friday. In fact the Giants nearly stole the first two game in San Diego, and were a few outs away from racing out to a 4-1 start. However, they fell short, and then Bumgarner laid an egg on Saturday night, and even though Peavy got off to a strong start, he’s overmatched again someone as nasty as Tyson Ross. 4-1 quickly turned into 3-4.

Meanwhile, the Giants continue to be the walking wounded. In addition to the negative opening day news surrounding Matt Cain and Jake Peavy, Brandon Belt pulled a groin, Casey McGehee strained a knee, Hector Sanchez got bopped on the head, and even the affiliates were afflicted as prized prospect Andrew Susac sprained a finger this weekend.

However, none of the worst case injury scenarios have come true. Belt and Peavy are back already. Cain should only miss a little time, not the whole season. And McGehee got a shot in his knee and should avoid the DL.

Other silver linings appeared as well: Chris Heston looked pretty good in his start. The Timmy’s fared well, even if they didn’t dominate. Nori Aoki has impressed. Angel Pagan looks spry. Buster Posey finally hit a home run, and then he hit another.

But, when you pull the camera back, it’s not hard to look at the first of the season as a microcosm of all our worst fears: injuries and lost velocity taking its toll on the starting staff. The lack of starting innings impacting the bullpen. And, the lack of power in the starting lineup continues to be alarming. Any time anyone hits a home run (just 4, by 3 players, through 7 games) it sure seems like a surprise.

This week might be more cheery. The Giants will unveil another World Series Champion banner. They will be home for the next 10 games. Four of those are against Arizona! Every day is a day closer to the return of Hunter Pence and Matt Cain. And McGehee’s injury means that we may see something resembling my ideal Giants’ lineup:

  • Aoki LF
  • Panik 2B
  • Posey C
  • Belt 1B
  • Pagan CF
  • Crawford SS
  • Duffy 3B
  • Blanco RF

Although, it will probably look more like this:

  • Aoki LF
  • Panik 2B
  • Pagan CF
  • Posey C
  • Belt 1B
  • Crawford SS
  • Blanco RF
  • Duffy 3B

Either way: MATT DUFFY!

Hitter of the Week:

I have to give this Nori Aoki. I’m still not in love with the signing, but if he hits like this consistently it does make the Giants lineup deeper, even if he has zero chance of hitting a home run anywhere other than Colorado. That aside, a great debut from a guy who needed to start strong to win some fans over.

Pitcher of the Week:

I’m tempted to give this to Lincecum. Although he wasn’t dominant he did the very thing we’ve all been longing for: he pitched efficiently and wisely. This is the great and on-going question: can he evolve and whether or not his stuff and velocity “recover”? He seemed to pitch on Friday like a guy who had some peace with that. However, that was just one start, and we’ll have to see if he can keep it up.

The award, though, goes to Chris Heston for his great start in place of Matt Cain. I’ll defer to this article by Grant, but I agree with his premise: he threw like a good who could be good. The movement in particular has got to be pleasing to the Giants, and his velocity puts him right behind Bumgarner. (Side note for another post: the Giants used to have some of the best velocity of any starting rotation. Remember when Bumgarner was on the “slower” side. Those days are gone, and it has to be alarming to the team to see so many mid to high 80’s fastballs).

Looking Ahead:

As I said, the Giants are finally home and have a week full of games against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. That’s as favorable an opening two series as you could ask for. However, the Rockies have been tearing the cover off the ball and while the Giants pitching is in disarray it seems like rough roads ahead. Furthermore, Arizona has played well since the Giants left town. They even defeated Clayton Kershaw. There won’t be any cake walks in this division this year.

Go Giants!

-SB

April! #sfgiants

Posted on by

Here we are folks: days away from real, meaningful baseball games that count (for realz) in the standings. It is about time, and I cannot wait!

The two big themes to come out of the Spring are: the starting pitchers have been really bad, and the team is not hitting any home runs.

Pitching Thoughts:

This can’t be all that surprising. The Giants failed in their bid to land another big-name starter and the rest of the guys are old, and/or coming off injury/surgery.

So, the question is: Spring aberration or signs of impending doom. I think it’s both. I know this a wishy-washy position to take, but I think it’s the truth. I have no worried about Bumgarner. None. I think Cain will have some ups and downs out of the gate, but I think he will be fine in the long run and even quite good as the season goes along.

Peavy will be adequately average, but this is where the questions begin. The biggest concern with Peavy is can he get through an opponent’s lineup three times. The Giant’s can’t afford a 5 inning starter in the third starter position.

The Timmy’s (Hudson and Lincecum) have actually provided some of the more positive moments of the spring, but also seem the most likely to not finish the season in the rotation. Hudson wins “most likely to spend significant time on the DL,” while Lincecum seems destined for the bullpen.

The likely replacements: Yusmeiro Petit and Ryan Vogelsong. It’s all about depth this year with the seven man rotation. The way the spring has gone, it may not be bad to see one or both getting starts.

The really big question is: what if it needs to go beyond the magnificent mediocre 7? Chris Heston has had a nice spring, but it’s slim pickins’.

Bold Prediction:

I’m sticking by my “Matt Cain” has a very good season prediction. But, I think the back-end of the rotation will struggle, and the Giants could get desperate and make a play for Cole Hamels in July.

Hitting Thoughts:

Again, the big concern here is lack of power. Can anyone be surprised? Even with everyone healthy, the Giants are expecting to start only three guys who could reasonably be expected to hit more than 15 home runs (Pence, Posey, and Belt). Of course, they will be starting the season sans Pence.

We’ve also heard all spring about Belt not playing the outfield. We’ve also heard about Baseballmonk’s favorite, Matt Duffy, starting the season at AAA. And then lo and behold today, the Giants started Belt in LF and Duffy at 3B, and it looks like the Duffman will make the team.

All of which communicates that the Giants are a work progress.

So how much of this is the plan, and how much is just winging it? Who can really know, but I think the answer, again, is both.

The Giants do have a general plan: high contact guys who can do a lot of different things. But they also are fearless about trying things on the fly (see: Ross, Cody; Burrell, Pat; Panik, Joe; etc). It just feels like there is more winging it being planned on this year.

Bold Prediction:

The Giants will struggle on offense, especially in the power department. If they experience more injuries things will get even more dicey. That’s not much of a bold prediction, but I also don’t know where the help will come from this year. Some of the best trading partners are in the Giants’ own division. And, do you really want Allen Craig? Shane Victorino? Didn’t think so. We may see more of Belt in LF and Posey at 1B than anyone expects.

(-SB)

…And We’re Back…#SFGiants #2015 #SpringTraining

Posted on by

Well, after relocating from Boston back to the Bay Area, having another kid, starting a new job, and finding a place to live, we’ve been quite busy. But, don’t worry baseballmonk has not gone away.

We’re just getting started.

Luckily this was a boring off-season. Ha ha.
No reason to go over the Lester spurn and the trades that weren’t.

Let’s break the team down into pitching and hitting, talk about the pessimistic and optimistic views of each, and make a couple radical suggestions. Here we go:

Hitting:

  1. The Pessimist: The Giants have no power, and will be the worst lineup the team has put on the field since the 2008-2009 wasteland years. Losing Pablo Sandoval, while good in the long run, will hurt this year and Casey McGehee isn’t going to make anyone miss the Panda any less. The high contact, average dependent lineup will be fun to watch on the rare occasions that it is working, but the lack of dingers will be painful. Finally, this team is not incredibly deep, and losing any combination of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan, and Hunter Pence will be deadly.
  2. The Optimist: The Giants lineup is not what it was last year when it had home run potential up and down the order, but don’t freak out just yet. The Giants still have three guys with 25+ HR potential (Posey, Belt, Pence), a healthy Pagan, a full year of Joe Panik, and the ever improving Brandon Crawford. They don’t need McGehee and Left Field to be awesome just average and the runs will come.
  3. A Radical Suggestion: We keep hearing about how there is no way Posey is moving positions (and that’s fine), and that Brandon Belt will only play first base, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that the best possible lineup from a hitting perspective involves Andrew Susac catching, Posey at first, and Belt in Left. Or Posey in left =) It seems like a no brainer to give Belt 30 games in left, put Posey at first 25% of the time, and use the catching depth (Susac and Hector Sanchez) to the team’s advantage. If/when the Giants return to the playoffs, by all means use Posey behind the plate. I see this more as a way to pace Posey than a true position switch. Whatever they do, there is a lot of pressure on Brandon Belt to produce. Go get ’em baby giraffe.
  4. A Second Radical Suggestion: Ok, I have two for the offense. I know the organization has staunchly said there are no internal 3B solutions all off-season, but I think Giants fans have to root for the elevation of Matt Duffy to everyday third-basemen. Duffy gives the Giants a similar profile to McGehee (high average dependence and low power), but brings better range and arm to the position. Plus he’s a much better athlete, which pays off on the bases and in lineup flexibility. The good news about left field and 3B is that there is no one who is so deeply invested in that they can’t be moved for the hot hand or improved on in a trade, but if McGehee was truly the best option, then why not Duffman?

Pitching:

  1. The Pessimist: The Giants have 7 starters, but every single one of them comes with a significant question mark. How will Madison Bumgarner bounce back from a heavy post-season work load? What does Matt Cain have left after ankle and elbow surgery? Will the Giants get the Jake Peavy who sucked for the Red Sox and faded in the playoffs, or the stud they saw down the stretch? Tim Hudson is 40 and falling apart, can he even make 20 starts this year? Tim Lincecum has been average to bad for three years now, is he ever coming back? Yusmerio Petit is awesome, but can he start on a regular basis and don’t we need him in the bullpen anyway? And Ryan Vogelsong continues to be a great story, but isn’t he redundant on a team that already has several guys on the wrong side of 30? Oh and that bullpen. Yeah, it’s been great but they are another year older and the magic has to end at some point.
  2. The Optomist: Bumgarner’s a horse and history shows that if he is going to suffer ill-effects from the 2014 post-season epicness it won’t come until 2016 or 2017. He’s an ace. Matt Cain is finally healthy, good reports are flowing, and there’s another really good season or two left in that arm. He’ll be fine. Peavy doesn’t need to be as good as he was down the stretch, he’ll benefit from a full season in the NL and pitching in this ballpark, all he needs to do is make his starts and be the third guy. Tim Hudson will be a perfectly adequate 4th starter. The Giants can pace him with the depth (i.e. Vogelsong) that they have. Huddy will go out on top. Lincecum’s been working with his dad and has his mechanics down again. Plus he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers of all time. It all evens out this year. Plus he’s the 5th starter and the pressures off. Petit will get to do his bullpen wizardry all year, and Vogelsong is here to caddy and fill in. The Giants will actually pitch better as a team in 2015 than they did last year. Oh, and the rest of the bullpen…they’ll be fine.
  3. A Radical Suggestion: For the record, I take the more optimistic view of the pitching staff. I feel especially confident about Bumgarner and Cain and think that excellent years from both of them will take the pressure off the back three and allow the Giants the freedom to figure it out. I also predict that Lincecum will have a good year. Not a great year, but a good one…good enough that he’ll make the decision to let him go a tough one on the front office. While I would love to suggest that Lincecum go to the bullpen (and for the record I still think this is a good idea), I think he’ll be a really good 5th starter. The real radical suggestion has to do with Vogelsong. In my opinion, the Giants never really figured out the closer role once Sergio Romo gave up the gig last summer. In some ways this worked to their advantage and created even more flexibility for Bruce Bochy. However, we all know that managers and players like consistency. I think Vogelsong should close. He’s got the mentality and he can still bring mid-90’s heat when he needs to. Plus, he’s already got the beard for it.

Well, there you have it. We now are doomed to a bunch of silly story lines until we get closer to final rosters and opening day. I do hope to post a few thoughts about this off-season and what it all means. But, let’s start the games huh!

-SB

Pre-Gaming Game 3 #SFGiants #Royals #WorldSeries

Posted on by

Some intrigue before Game 3:

  • First, the lineups…the Giants go back to the NLCS lineup…this means 5 left-handed hitters. Left-handed hitters have Buster Posey type numbers against Jeremy Guthrie, so as nice as it would be to have Morse take a couple of at bats (plus his bat doesn’t play as well against the righty-heavy bullpen off the bench), you can’t deny the history there. The Royals are mixing it up quite a bit. No Aoki. Gordon in the 2 hole (he’s a great player, but not having a great postseason), Moustakas in the 5 hole (this is the big shocker, the dude hit 9TH most of the year), Jarrod Dyson in the 8th spot, and of course no Billy Butler. This decision gives the Royals more speed and defense, and ensures that if guys get on base they will running and bunting like crazy. It also means the temptation for Yost to meddle and get over involved in this game will be immense.
  • Second, the national media continues to harp on the Giants totally bullpen meltdown. The issue with the bullpen in Game 2 was not that the Royals beat the Giants bullpen aces. In fact, it is quite the opposite. The got to the Giants 6th and 7th options. The issue was with who Bochy chose, not with the bullpen (especially the core 4). If the Royals beat Affeldt, Casilla, etc then we’d really have a problem. Until then Game 2 was a bummer, but clarity providing bummer.
  • Third, it sounds like Tim Lincecum is available. This is either great news or ulcer inducing information. It also sounds like there is a slim chance that Bumgarner goes tomorrow in Game 4 on short rest. The only way I see that happening is if (a) the Giants lose, and (b) this game goes extra innings and the Giants burn Petit and Lincecum.

I’m heading out of town this weekend for a series of important meetings, so I’m not sure how much blogging will happen moving forward.

Until the next time. GO GIANTS!!!

-SB

3 Thoughts on The Game 2 Debacle #SFGiants #Royals #WorldSeries

Posted on by

1. Don’t Panik. Or is it panic? I forget now.

There are two ways to look at last night:

  1. THE SKY IS FALLING. EVERYTHING IS HORRIBLE.
  2. The Giants won the game they needed to win, got a split in KC, and now have home field advantage in a best of 5 series.

I can tell you right now that the actual players on the San Francisco Giants share the perspective of point 2. There are some clear issues (see below), but if you take out the emotions you were feeling in the 6th inning last night, this is far from the worst case scenario heading back to SF (in fact, we more or less predicted this here).

One of the big keys for me was seeing how the Giants looked against the “Big 3” of the Royals pen. They all came in throwing gas and looking nasty, but the Giants looked far from overwhelmed. They had some especially good at bats against Kelvim Herrera. Greg Holland will blow a save in this series I am convinced of it. Hitting these guys is no easy task, but to quote Krukow: “one to measure, one to rake.” The Giants don’t look completely overmatched here, they can hit these guys.

The Giants walk away from round one impressed but not intimidated.

2. Let’s Freak Out For a Minute. Bochy has done so many great things in managing games and the bullpen over the years that he’s more than earned the right to have a mulligan. But, like Game 2 against St. Louis, I thought he made a critical mistake in how he handled Peavy, and in relying on Machi and Strickland.

Despite Jake’s low pitch count he should have had guys warming up at the start of the inning, and he should have had a “get outs/stay in…give up a baserunner/come out” policy for Peavy for all innings after the 5th. The only issue he’s had since coming over to the Giants come up the 3rd time through the order (astutely pointed out on the broadcast by Tom Verducci…Harold Reyonlds should be muted but listen to Verducci!). I would have liked to see Peavy come out when Cain singled. (Actually, I would have loved to see them start the inning fresh with Petit). Then you bring Lopez in for Hosmer and go from there.

The second mistake was bringing in Jean Machi. He has failed, again and again, down the stretch and in the postseason. He threw 2 balls that weren’t even remotely close to the strike zone and did nothing to set up the batter, and then he threw a fastball right down the middle of the plate that he was fortunate to only give up a single on.

In a moment I’ll share my thoughts on Stickland and Lincecum and all that, but for now, the game was really lost for me in the first 3 batters of the inning.

The real issue, underneath all of this, is that the Giants starters after Bumgarner just don’t have what it takes at this point to get deep into the ballgame. This is where the Giants really, really miss Matt Cain. Bochy should have been thrilled that Peavy recovered and got through 5.

The three guys most responsible for the loss against the Cards were the culprits again (Peavy, Strickland, Machi). Bochy learned his lesson and you never saw those guys again the rest of the way in the NLCS. I think the same applies here.

3. Oh, hello Tim Lincecum. Yesterday I broke down how Bochy used Hunter Stickland in Game 1 and what it revealed about Tim Lincecum. Five batters into Lincecum’s first 2014 postseason appearance I was ready to throw that out. Then Timmy tweaked his back. The word is that it’s probably not serious. He’s dealt with this before.

But, it is serious because can you really trust a guy who is a pitch away from tweaking his back? He was so close to being back in the circle of trust, especially with the next three game in SF. He may be fine and he may pitch again, and pitch well, but whatever air of confidence was building up around Lincecum late in the game last night, seems to have been let out rather quickly by his balky back.

Looking Ahead: The Giants have some serious issues with their bullpen moving forward. I don’t see how Hunter Stickland can be used again in a high leverage moment in this series. He may well be the Giants closer in 2016 (the next time we do go through all of this), but he can’t go out there again with the game on the line.

Neither can Jean Machi.

Which means, and it seems entirely impossible that this can be true, but Yumseiro Petit just got even more valuable. Bochy has to hope he can get 5 to 6 innings from Tim Hudson, use Petit as a bridge, and then go with the trusted 4 (Lopez, Affeldt, Romo, and Casilla) in the late innings. Maybe Lincecum works his way in there too.

But Petit can no longer be a caddy for the starters, he needs to be a primary bullpen weapon.

To reiterate, as ugly as things got last night, pull the camera back and the end result (1-1 tie heading home) is a good result. The Giants are experienced, know how to shake it off, and will play Friday loose and confident. The Royals lose Billy Butler, and loss of a DH allows Ned Yost to meddle, which is a good thing.

No reason to freak out yet, Giants fans. The biggest things to look for now: The Posey/Panda/Pence dingers and can the Giants bridge the middle innings?

Go Giants!

-SB

3 Thoughts on Game 1 #WorldSeries #SFGiants #Royals

Posted on by

1. I’ll Take Bumgarner. I live in Boston and as I drove around yesterday, listening to sports talk radio, desperately hoping they would mention the WORLD SERIES, I finally got my wish during the last 5 minutes of an afternoon show. The guys discussed the “goodness” of the Royals’ story, shared their amazement at the Giants 3rd trip to the Series in 5 years, and wondered aloud about the lack of star power between these two teams.

Which is all fine. There are no Derek Jeter’s, Mike Trout’s, or Bryce Harper’s in this series. There are no Clayton Kershaw’s, or Felix Hernandez’s, or Justin Verlander’s.

One of the guys suggested that Posey is a “rising” star, and that this Madison Bomgardner (how they pronounced his name) was an ok pitcher, not really an Ace, but probably/maybe the best starter between the two teams.

I know that baseball is a regional sport at this point in time, and that guys in Boston may not know much about the Giants, but it is embarrassing that one could talk about sports as a profession and not know a THING about Madison Bumgarner, who is one of the five best pitchers in baseball right now. It’s unthinkable. I hope he gets to start again just so more people can see him pitch.

Of all the things that are amazing about Bumgarner (the scoreless streaks, the postseason wins, etc) this one takes the cake for me: He is STILL younger than Tim Lincecum was when the Giants won it all in 2010. Unreal.

Bumgarner did what he needed to do and more in this game. For the Giants to win this series they need(ed) to win Bumgarner’s starts, get out in front, and take the wind out of the Royals sails. This series could not have started any better for them.

2. Pence and the Law of Averages. One of the reasons I favored the Giants coming into this series is because the Royals have gotten above average play from almost everyone in their lineup. With the exception of Salvador Perez (who promptly homered last night) and Billy Butler, most of the Royals are hitting better than normal (especially in terms of power).

Now, the postseason is short and guys can get on weird power surges (hello Cody Ross), but one could reasonably expect the Royals to come back to earth a bit in this series.

On the other side, the Giants went 8-2 through the first three rounds with exactly zero home runs from the middle of their order. Posey, Panda, and Pence have all had nice enough postseasons, but no extra base hits for Posey and no home runs for any of them. Even though none of those guys is a true power hitter, it is difficult to imagine the Giants playing 14-17 postseason games and not getting a home run from any of those three.

Cue Hunter Pence. While I still fully expect to see some power from both Panda and Posey, Hunter Pence is the kind of player who when he gets hot, he gets ridiculously hot. Pence could carry the offense in a series like this. We’ve yet to see that in two postseasons with Pence, but it is entirely possible.

I’m not saying that is going to happen, but it easily could. And even if it doesn’t I do expect to continue to see these three guys get some big hits in this World Series.

3. Wherefore art Thou, Timmy Lincecum. I texted my dad after Bumgarner came out that we would see Timmy in this game.

We did not.

Which means that we now know, without a shadow of a doubt, why he is on the postseason roster. Lincecum is here because the Giants staff does not trust the 2-4 starters. He’s not here to be a 6th inning bridge. He’s not here to be a late inning strikeout weapon. He is simply an insurance policy.

Some people have criticized the Giants for using him in this way. Why waste a roster spot on a luxury insurance item when it could be used more practically? Why handcuff yourself to a 24-man roster, when you don’t need to?

Here’s a scenario for you, though. Let’s say, win or lose, Peavy pitches well enough to get through 6 innings, and Bochy doesn’t have to use Petit in Game 2. And let’s say that in the second inning of Hudson’s Game 3 start something goes terribly wrong: his hip flares up and he has to come out, or he doesn’t have it and he’s getting hit around the yard. Petit comes in and does his hero act, saving the day (and the bullpen) by pitching 4 strong innings.

That’s all wonderful, but he’s not going to be available the next day when Game 4 rolls around and Ryan Vogelsong’s got nothing left in the tank. Now where do you go? Jean Machi? Hunter Strickland in the 4th? Javy Lopez for a couple of innings? Nope. It’s Tim Lincecum time.

Again, the Giants don’t have enough confidence in their starting pitchers to keep Lincecum off the roster. They obviously hope they never have to use him, but they need him around just in case.

We know this because last night was the perfect time to give a guy a chance (in low pressure World Series situation) to show the team that he can be trusted in a bigger spot later on down the line.

Bochy gave that chance to Hunter Strickland (who handled it extremely well and demonstrated that against this lineup he is a great 6th or 7th inning option).

If you were wondering why Tim Lincecum is still here, now you know.

Looking Ahead: As good as we all feel coming out of Game 1, and we should feel good because that was the best possible outcome, the series changes dramatically today. From here until Game 5, the starting pitching matchups are very even and, especially for the Giants, very difficult to predict.

Will Peavy pitch like he did in Game 1 against the Nationals, or Game 2 against Cardinals? Can these old dogs make it more than two times through the Royals lineup?

The Giants starters are more likely to pitch like Bunmgarner did in Game 1 than any of the Royals’ guys, but they also are more likely to implode. We are dealing with volatile stocks here!

Hoping for good Peavy tonight, and more dingers!

Go Giants!

-SB

How The Giants Can Win the LCS in 6 #sfgiants #nlcs

Posted on by

Before I break it down, a couple of thoughts:

  • Based on the results it sure looks like the Cardinals are a superior team to the Dodgers. Also, the Giants and Dodgers played each other straight up all year (10-9 in favor of the Dodgers to be fair), so, sure the Giants could have beat them in a seven game series. But man, if it doesn’t feel like the Giants caught a huge break in getting the Cardinals instead. The Giants have always struggled against Clayton Kershaw (apparently the Cardinals have no such issues), and Zach Grienke really had their number this year. Having to face those guys four times in a week was going to be a tall order. Plus there’s the whole rivalry distraction, the Puig/Bumgarner silliness, and the specter of Brian Wilson that no one has to think about now. Somehow, this series feels much more open and winnable.
  • Heading into the 2012 postseason the Giants were platooning X Nady and Gregor Blanco in left field. And then the Giants never faced a left-handed starter in any of their 16 playoff games, which means that Blanco’s glove (and bat) got a lot of time (really all of the time) during the championship run. Imagine if they had to play the Phillies (with Lee and Hammels) or any team with a left-handed starter. Either we’d mention Nady in the pantheon of heroes, or we might not be talking about the potential for a 3rd World Championship right now. I mention that because the Cardinals have nothing but right-handed starters. The Giants have a lefty heavy lineup. Relatively subtle things like this seem to end up playing a large role in the Giants’ success. Blanco (as well as Joe Panik and Brandon Belt) will need to come up big in this series.
  • Along those same lines, it appears that Mike Morse will be available and play in this series. Which raises the question: start him or save him on the bench? Bochy loves to go with what-is-working-right-now in the postseason. Travis Ishikawa hasn’t been setting the world on fire, but it’s worked so far. Morse is unknown at the moment, and having to get your timing back against Adam Wainwright is kind of cruel. BUT, the Giants will need to hit some home runs to win this series. So, do you keep starting Travis because it’s working, he is left-handed, he plays better defense than Morse, and because when Matheny brings in a lefty to mow down the bottom part of the Giants order it would be nice to have Morse around to pinch hit? Or, do you gamble that Morse won’t kill you in the field and can get a hold of one at a key spot? Three run home runs are going to be extremely valuable in this series. Watch carefully how this plays itself out.
  • The only player on the Giants’ roster to not make an appearance in the NLDS was Tim Lincecum. He didn’t even get the call in the 18 inning game. Something tells me, though, that he could play a role in this series. Look for Lincecum to have a Barry Zito moment before this one is done. (UPDATE: Grant thinks it’s a bad idea to have Tim on the roster).
  • Finally, as if you didn’t have enough reason to root wholeheartedly for the Giants, the Cardinals will feature two of Giants’ fans least favorite players: John Lackey and A.J. Pierzynski. Also, Matt Holiday. Good grief.

How the Giants can win in six (by the way, SI and McCovey Chronicles also pick the Giants in six…not sure what that means):

  • Game 1: Wainwright vs. Bumgarner. If I were a fan of some other team, say the Mets, I’d still love to watch this game. There’s been a lot written about “not-the-Cardinals-not-the-Giants-again,” but this kind of pitching matchup is what makes baseball awesome. Watch and enjoy world. As I see it playing out, unless Wainwright really is broken, game 1 and game 5 are coin-flips. It really could go either way, and it will probably be something weird that changes the game. I think the Giants will win game 1 because Bumgarner seems to do better on the road, but lose the rematch at home (see below). I’ll say Giants 3-2.
  • Game 2: Lynn vs. Peavy. My guess is that the Cardinals really wanted Peavy at the trade deadline, but the Giants beat them to it and the Cards had to settle for Lackey. That makes me smile. The Giants have destroyed Lance Lynn in each of the five times he’s pitched against them (including 2 starts in the 2012 NLCS). However, this year’s version of Lance Lynn is better than previous versions. Again, I see this being a coin-flip. This time the Cardinals will prevail to even the series as it heads to the Bay. Cardinals 5-3.
  • Game 3: In the NLDS preview I wrote that the Giants MUST win every Bumgarner start. In this series I actually believe that does not apply. The reason for that comes down to the crucial games 3 and 4 matchups. First, the Giants haven’t announced who is starting yet (well-played Boch). So some of this is a shot in the dark. Second, both teams had surprisingly successful starts in the first round from the likely starters in these games. My tendency is to trust the Giants’ results more than the Cardinals. I think Tim Hudson is more likely to repeat his performance than John Lackey, and Ryan Vogelsong than Shelby Miller. Third, I think Bochy will not start Petit (or Lincecum, ha ha) in these games and have a very short leash with the starters and bring one (or both) of them in if needed. I do think Lincecum could have a moment here, at home, saving the day in a big game. I see Game 3 being Lackey vs. Hudson, with Huddy out pitching the other old dog and the Giants getting a modicum of revenge for the 2002 World Series. Giants 6-3.
  • Game 4: Miller vs. Vogelsong. With the Giants up 2-1 I see Bochy turning to Vogey who certainly earned the right to get another shot with his Game 4 performance in the LDS. Again, though, with a short leash and a call to the ‘pen as soon as trouble starts. I think both starters will be solid the first time through the order, and so who can manage round 2 will be critical. I think Vogelsong will adjust, but Miller will struggle. The bullpens will be called earlier than usual, and the Giants will fight and hang on in a close, tense game. Giants 4-3.
  • Game 5: As I said before, Bumgarner vs. Wainwright, assuming Wainwright is healthy, is a coin-flip. For some reason Bumgarner struggles more at home. Plus, I just don’t see the Cardinals going down in 5. In a very close, low scoring game, the Cardinals prevail and send it back to St. Loius. Cardinals 1-0.
  • Game 6: Lynn vs. Peavy, round 2. Much like the 2010 NLCS, the Giants will miss a chance to clinch at home and have to go on the road to finish it off. Much like 2010, they won’t mess around with a game 7 and they will get it done here. I see Peavy pitching the game of his life, spitting and yelling, and the Giants good mojo against Lance Lynn will once gain prevail. Giants 4-2 (for the 4-2 series win).

One final thought: despite what I just wrote, I see this series being much more fluid than the last round. There will be a million twists and turns. Unlike last time I don’t see any “must-win” matchups for the Giants. I think they have a fairly good chance in every game (no Jordan Zimmerman’s here). Undoubtedly this will be a wild ride, I hope we are happy with the result on the other end!

-SB