Futurecasting #sfgiants #2017 #2018

The Giants are terrible and nothing is good. We get it, this story has been writing itself all year.

One quick look at some numbers…The Giants nearly pulled off a .500 month for the first time all year. They sputtered again in the final week of August and finished 13-16 which is also what they did in May. That record, and the .448 winning percentage associated with it, represent the high points of the season.

So yeah, pretty terrible.


All that remains is trying to figure out how to get out of this mess and what next year might look like.

The big news of recent days is that it seems 99% certain that Johnny Cueto will opt into the remaining four-year on his contract.

The problem is I started writing this post before that news broke, so hang with me.

There are two options to move forward that involve Cueto opting out. In my opinion, this is the best case scenario for the Giants as it creates way more flexibility for the team to address various concerns.


Option 1 (Cueto Opting Out)

Option 1 involves using the money that Cueto would have taken to address the lack of right-handed power and pitching depth.

  • CF Span
  • 2B Panik
  • C Posey
  • 1B Belt
  • LF Justin Upton/JD Martinez
  • SS Crawford
  • RF Pence
  • 3B Panda/Arroyo

Obviously there are variations to play on here…Does Sandoval come back? Do they eat the contract on Pence or Span to create more space for better player?

However those details shake out the fundamental move here is adding right-handed power to the lineup via the LF position.

  • Bumgarner
  • Samardzija
  • Moore
  • Stratton/Blach
  • Veteran (there are a whole bunch of cheap veterans the Giants could add here for depth)

In addition they may have money to apply to the bench or bullpen, depending on how they shape the roster.

But, essentially, this would be a Cueto for Upton swap. Anyone else down for that?


Option 2 (Cueto Opt Out)

Option 2 involves going young and getting more long-term flexibility.

  • CF Duggar/Hernandez/Parker
  • 2B Panik
  • C Posey
  • 1B Belt
  • RF Pence
  • SS Crawford
  • LF Slater
  • 3B Arroyo

This option also involves finding a way to get rid of Denard Span. I believe there are some teams (maybe a Twins reunion) that would take Span if the Giants ate a lot of the contract. Not having to pay Cueto could help make that more palatable.

  • Bumgarner
  • Samardzija
  • Moore
  • Stratton
  • Blach

The Giants could still use some dollars to get a cheap veteran, but again the theme here is youth.

This may not be super inspiring, but part of the reason for the approach is (a) turn the roster over and let some young guys play to see what you have, (b) clear some money so that the Giants could go big game hunting in 2018 when Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Charlie Blackmon, and, most importantly, Bryce Harper will be free agents.


Option 3 (Cueto Opts In)

  • CF Span
  • 2B Panik
  • C Posey
  • 1B Belt
  • RF Pence
  • SS Crawford
  • LF Slater/Parker/Cheap Free Agent/JD Martinez
  • 3B Arroyo/Sandoval

It seems to me that if Cueto opts in the Giants are stuck with internal options, cheap veteran flyers, or making a significant trade. Perhaps Panik to Pittsburg for Andrew McCutchen. Perhaps they go crazy and indulge the Giancarlo Stanton rumors. Maybe there is something else up their sleeve that none of us are expecting.

  • Bumgarner
  • Cueto
  • Samardzija
  • Moore
  • Blach/Stratton/Veteran

This is, undoubtedly, the best option for the Giants 2018 rotation. However, there are a lot of question marks here and the roster gets incredibly inflexible for a couple of YEARS.


Final Thoughts:

  • This post is intended to paint in broad strokes, none of these options should be construed as a deep dive into the various moves the Giants can make.
  • I like Brandon Belt and have been a proponent of his for a long time, but his contract is really looking like an albatross. For all the contracts handed out, it is hard to argue with many of them. Posey, Crawford, and certainly Bumgarner, all look like steals. Matt Cain backfired but never in a way that hampered roster building. Cueto’s deal is weird and hence this post, but if he is even 80% of what he was last year the rest of the way that ends up being a deal. All that to say, the one that really hurts is Brandon Belt. He is going to have to be very healthy and perform well above career averages for the Giants to not deeply regret that deal moving forward.
  • The reality is the Giants are going to do everything they can to compete in 2018, which means option 2 is the least likely outcome here, and I get it, to a certain extent. No matter what direction they take, I just hope they take it with conviction. The Giants went all in on a pitching and defense approach in the wake of the Bonds-era and they did it with conviction. I don’t know that they have the same level of conviction now (it seems to be more driven by general competitiveness and keeping people buying tickets). Hopefully they can get that back soon!
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Signs of Blah #sfgiants

We’ve officially hit the doldrums. Maybe they hit you on opening day, maybe you are still, pathetically, excited about the 2017 SF Giants (I don’t know, there might be one of you). Chances are you are not even reading this because you moved on long ago.

One of the questions driving the season, since at least mid-May, has been: “who are you excited to get to see play?”

Many were excited about Christian Arroyo.
Austin Slater was a nice story.
Mac Williamson made an appearance for a minute.
A few of us got excited about Pablo Sandoval’s return.
I was looking forward to a couple of Tyler Beede starts.

But here we are, with 36 games yet to play, and what is there to look forward to?

Anyone remotely interesting is already here or not coming up (I would have loved to see Andrew Suarez, but it seems like the Giants don’t want to expose him at this point and I get that). Ryder Jones is here. Jarrett Parker is getting his shot (again). Kyle Crick is trying to make a case for future bullpener. Chris Stratton is in the conversation for future rotations.

But, there will be no Christian Arroyo show, part II.
No Tyler Beede debut.
No Austin Slater return.

What is there to look forward to?


This is not to say there is nothing worth watching or paying attention to. Madison Bumgarner is worth watching, period, but even more so because his ability to be great still is so important to the future of the franchise. So far so good.

Matt Moore has had two quality starts in a row and if he can keep it up it we will have the whole offseason to debate what it means. In the meantime, keep rooting for a Matt Moore resurgence. It’s only thing that makes sense.

Ty Blach and Matt Moore may have switched bodies, which would explain their last two starts, but what if Blach has turned into a pumpkin. He’s been one of the best stories of the season (the best?!), and a strong finish would secure him a spot in the 2018 rotation and make all of us feel just a little bit better about how this year has gone. A Ty Blach debacle to end the year would be a poetic ending to a terrible, terrible season.

We’re very likely to see a couple of Johnny Cueto starts before the end of the season and there might not be anything more important to the future of the Giants. At this point, I think we have to root for him to be really good when he comes back, good enough to tempt him to opt out. If he doesn’t I know I can make the case for why that is not the end of the world, but the fastest way to the Giants remaking their roster is through a Cueto opt out.

Beyond that I’d like to see Joe Panik and Brandon Belt come back clear of concussions and be good for a couple weeks before shutting it down. I’d like to see Brandon Crawford have one hot streak before this miserable campaign ends. I’d like to see Buster end the year with a .900 OPS.

There’s also Mark Melancon proving he’s healthy, a couple of guys in the bullpen making a case to be important to the 2018 team, and fringe players like Kelby Tomlinson establishing themselves as good role players.


We have a long dark winter to stare down, but may as well get started. I’m rooting for Cueto to go, and Justin Upton to arrive.

How to Beat the Cubs in 4 games #sfgiants #nlds

Here you have the immovable object vs the unstoppable force:

  • The SF Giants, owners of one of the worst second-half’s in baseball (history)…the worst team left in the tournament…a team with a variety of questions almost everywhere outside of the starting rotation.
  • The Cubs roll in with the best record, best season, most momentum…a team that has almost no holes and small, nearly imperceptible weaknesses.
  • On the other hand, the Giants don’t lose in the playoffs, have this weird even-year voodoo going on, and are facing the “cursed” Cubbies.
  • The Giants, to my knowledge, have never been favored to win a postseason series during this run. They were never supposed to beat the 2010 Phillies, they couldn’t beat Cliff Lee and the Rangers; the 2012 Cardinals and Tigers were too talented to go down to Barry Zito and Co., and in 2014, the Royals were a runaway trail until they got Bumgarnered in the World Series. In many ways this would be the ultimate crowning achievement of the perpetual underdog Giants: taking down the Cubs.
  • Have you noticed how good the Cubs are?

Here’s a good summary of the two teams and their path to this moment.

One thing I would add to this: I admire the heck out of Joe Maddon. He’s a leader and his baseball strategies are inspired. But he’s never won anything. And he can get cute. Bochy has made some interesting moves over the years (including game 1’s lineup), but his moves always seem more informed by hunches and trying to win, as opposed to impressing himself. Joe Maddon is both a strength and potential weakness.

So how do the Giants do this? How do they get by a team that has great starting pitching, a stacked, versatile lineup, a very flexible bench, amazing defense, and strong bullpen headed by the best closer in baseball?

A couple of general thoughts:

  • The Cub’s pitching is good, but it is not as good as everyone thinks. Or at least, this is my opinion. Outside of Jake Arrieta, this is not a rotation that throws all that hard, or is particularly nasty. They kind of remind me of the 1993 Giants. They throw strikes and are confident in their great defense and that the lineup will score runs. Nothing against that strategy, but in the post-season, in a short series, against a lineup that is good at putting the ball in play, they’ll wish they could put more guys away via the strikeout.
  • The Giants played the Cubs extremely well. Early in the season the Giants took 2 of 3 in San Francisco, including a game where they knocked John Lester (games 1 starter) around a bit. Then, we all remember the 4 games of horror in Chicago before Labor Day. All 4 games were 1-run games, and if the bullpen handles itself, the Giants take 3 of those 4 games. Head to head these teams are actually closely matched.
  • The Giants have more holes and more question marks, no one is arguing that, but they have a manager who is a genius at masking his team’s weaknesses in short series. Again, I like Joe Maddon, but Bochy gives the Giants a huge edge.
  • Finally, some will argue that the Giants need to get the lead and avoid facing Aroldis Chapman. I would also recommend this course of action. However, the Giants are due a ninth inning comeback. The fact that they had exactly zero during the regular season screams that its’ going to happen at some point in this series. Further, the Giants saw Chapman as a Yankee and a Cub this year, and are familiar with him from his time in Cincinnati. They came very close to scoring off him each time they faced him this season. I know close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades but it feels like they will get to him in this series.

A couple specific thoughts:

  • Game 1 is always important, but I think in this series and in this context it is EXTREMELY imperative the Giants win tonight. A dominant performance by Johnny Cueto, a couple big hits by the lineup, and a save for Sergio Romo accomplishes three things: first, the all important win (duh); second, it further establishes confidence in the minds of the Giants…given their second half wobbles, it will serve them well to get back to back wins to start off the post-season; and third, it will introduce doubt into the Cubs, making game 2 a must win situation already (don’t want to be down 2-0 facing Bum).
  • Game 2 will be a house money situation for the G-men. My sense is the Cubs will figure out how to get this done, and even things up heading back to the West Coast.
  • Game 3 features the respective Aces of these teams. The Giants won this matchup a little over a month ago, and I think the same happens here, probably a 2-1 Giants win.
  • Game 4 then become a must win for both teams. If the Cubs pull it out and go back to Chicago, I can see them emerging victorious. The Giants need to avoid that plane ride at all costs. I’ve noticed several national writers dismiss Matt Moore as a league average starter, and sure, his numbers support that diagnoses, but Matt Moore represents a much different “league average” than say, Kirk Reuter. His overall numbers are there, but this is a guy who has nasty stuff and who can be nearly perfect when he’s on. My sense here is the Giants offense busts out a bit against John Lackey, and Matt Moore settles in to get the job done. Giants in 4.

I wrote before that all I wanted was for this team to have an opportunity in a series, and they get it. Can the rotation carry this team to an incredible, unexpected victory? My sense is yes, but as the old cliché goes: This is why they play the games.

Final Thoughts:

  • Key Hitters: there are a lot as it looks like Bochy is going to rely on platoons at 3B, 2B, and CF. One of those 6 guys needs to contribute significantly. I like Gorkys Hernandez to be the guy who gets a huge hit at some point. I also think it’s Brandon Belt time. He’ll face 3 right handers (another overall Giant’s advantage) after Lester tonight, and if he can get hot, especially homer hot, life will be good for us all.
  • Key Bullpen arm: Romo is obviously hugely important, but the other guy who will need to be big is Will Smith. I was a little surprised Steven Okert got left of the roster for this series, leaving the Giants with 2 lefties to get Anthony Rizzo/Jayson Heyward out. Smith will have to dominate those guys and get a few righties out as well.
  • Key stat: The stat I am watching in this series is innings pitched by the Giants starters. There’s a very good chance the Giants could head into game 2 without having yet dipped into the bullpen. Bochy is never afraid to use his ‘pen in the postseason, but I think this year will look more like the 2005 White Sox in that the Giants recipe for success may be 7-8 innings from the starters and then 3-5 outs from Smith and Romo. If the Giants get 30 innings from their starters in games 1-4, they will win this thing in SF.

Here we go!

Week [2] In Review (4/11-4/17) #sfgiants #weekinreview

Week 2 was not as fun as Week 1, but sometimes trips to Colorado tend to have that effect.

There were highlights. Jeff Samardzija got the trip off to a great start with a great start in Colorado. Johnny Cueto looked like a 130 million dollar man on Saturday night against the Dodgers. Brandon Belt continues to mash. Matt Cain was pitching great again, until he wasn’t. Trevor Brown was/is a great story.

There were plenty of lowlights. Two injuries (Romo and Adrianza) weaken any sense of depth the team has. Jake Peavy continues to struggle. Madison Bumgarner can’t get Kike Hernandez out. The bullpen was less than awesome. The defense had a few lapses. Most significantly, the vaunted offense is not looking so vaunted right now.

In particular, Matt Duffy, Denard Span, and Joe Panik are struggling. Buster Posey and Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford are fine, but not lighting the world on fire. There are some signs of life (Panik homered yesterday), but it would be encouraging to see a few of those guys (Span in particular) get it going soon.

Week in Review: 1 of 3 at Colorado, and 1 of 3 at the Dodgers. 7-6, 3rd place in NL West, 1 game behind LA.

Hitter of the Week: Brandon Belt had a very nice week, but let’s talk about Angel Pagan for a moment. He was the forgotten man, a guy many fans wanted to be replaced by a Mac Williamson this spring, a proud player “demoted” to hitting ninth and playing left field after a solid career in center and at the top of most lineup cards.

As long as he was somewhat serviceable at the plate and didn’t embarrass himself in left, it seemed fine that he would start the season there. Over time the Giants would inevitably make the move to Williamson, and Pagan would ride into the sunset, always to be remembered for his key role in the 2012 championship.

It’s early, but so far, Pagan looks fresh, healthy, and dynamic. If everyone else is doing their thing, he makes this lineup extremely dangerous. He’s been running so hot, you have to wonder if Bochy doesn’t hit him leadoff while Span tries to get it going from the nine spot.

Pitcher of the Week: I feel tempted to put Samardzija here because he pitched twice and one of those starts was a dominant effort in Colorado. I still think it will take him a little time to settle down in SF, but it may happen faster than I anticipated.

I have to name Johnny Cueto for the incredible effort he turned in on Saturday night. The Giants had lost 3 in a row, their 6 -2 sprint out of the gate, ground to a halt. They were Kershawed the night before. They’d had some tough games in Colorado.

They needed a pick-me-up and they got one in a huge way from Cueto.

It’s always interesting to me to see how a pitcher does when he has back to back starts against the same team. In Cueto’s week 1 start again the Dodger’s he got nailed for 5 first inning runs. Since then: 13.1 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 15 K. Awesome. He figured it out and then he backed it up, and it was exactly what the team needed.

Plus he’s so much fun to watch.

Looking Ahead: The Giants begin a 10 game home stand tonight, which brings us back to one of our keys for the season: dominating at home. During the week we’ll see Arizona 4 times, and then the Marlins this weekend for 3.

The Giants need to see a few guys get it going with the bats, and a quality start from Jake Peavey would be a welcomed development. Going 5-2 and taking back first place would be pretty great as well.