Something About a Trade?

So, yeah, this.

A fascinating trade for a million reasons, but of primary importance is this: this trade is way more about the next five years than it is about this season. Nothing about this move dooms the Giants’ chances, they don’t need to do anything drastic, and when all the dust settles the most important development for THIS season that took place last night is that the Giants starters have now won five games in a row. Each starter won his turn through the rotation for the first time since 2007. That’s huge.

Now, thoughts on this blockbuster move:

  • Short Term: Replacing James Loney with Adrian Gonzalez is a huge upgrade for LA. I felt like Adrian not got his fair shake from the Boston fans/media, but he’s good and he’s back to torment the Giants. (That said, Cody Ross has hit 19 home runs this year to Adrian’s 15…just saying). The rest of the trade is pretty much a non-factor over the next 36 games. Becket will either take the place of Joe Blanton or fill in for Billingsley (if his elbow keeps him out). In either case, his addition is fairly negligible. He might show a few flashes of brilliance, but the other big move the Dodgers had pondered involved Cliff Lee, and that would have scared me. Beckett does not. Nick Punto fills in for Hairston and Carl Crawford is a long-term gamble who won’t play this year. The Giants are 7-5 against LA so far and even going 3-3 over the final 6 games will secure a winning record against their rivals.
  • Long Term: AGon is clearly the big catch. The Mexican-born, SoCal native will help mobilize the franchise and be a face as they move forward. Beckett has a Huff-like odd/even season thing going. He does well in the odd years, if healthy he could be a plus for LA in 2013…I also think he will do well in the NL West, but doing well and being an Ace, circa 2003/2007 is not going to happen. Nice guy to have next year, but would you take Beckett over MadBum or Vogelsong as your 3rd/4th starter. No. Crawford is interesting. He will likely take over for Victorino, but he is also going to miss 2 seasons worth of baseball, in his prime, when this is all said and done. And he still will be owed a ton of money. The Dodgers are essentially saying this: “we are willing to pay, for Adrian Gonzalez, the price (~250 mil) that the Angles are paying Pujols and the Reds, Votto, and if we get lucky we also get an All-Star left fielder out of the deal.” Interesting.
  • Big Picture: while the move does help, somewhat, the 2012 Dodgers, this trade is all about making a statement. The New Dodgers are here to play and to spend. Deal with it MLB.

The NL West really is shaping into Red Sox/Yankees. What is interesting, is that the Giants, through very different from the Red Sox, have a philosophy, a way. In the end, the trade the Giants may most regret in light of all this is the Wheeler for Beltran move last year.

In this new day and age, and with an extra wild card, the Giants don’t need to do anything different. Strong starting pitching, development of young players, and reasonable extensions for our own talent is the way to go. The Giants, if they stick with this plan, actually have the edge in my opinion. I will take the Giants strong pitching and Buster Posey over an All-Star lineup and a Cy Young award winner any day. Obviously, there’s more to the Giants line up than Posey and more to the Dodgers rotation than Kershaw, but that is essentially the story that is developing here. Moreover, the Giants must hope that the Gary Browns, and Joe Paniks, and Francisco Peguero’s of their system develop into good players.

If nothing else, the NL West is no joke anymore.

One final thought, the player who now matters more than anyone else to the remaining 36 games of 2012 is none other than Tim Lincecum. We’ve been saying this to one extent or another all season, but it is now more true than ever. He must pitch like vintage Timmy in his final 7+ starts to help the Giants nail this division down.

(-SB)

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Sweet Sweepness

Nothing like a sweet sweep to wash away the taste of sour Melk (see what I did there). Seriously, though, that was huge, and here are the reasons why:

  1. The Giants, for the first time this year against the Dodgers, had the “big 3” lined up to pitch. Yes, Lincecum has had a terrible year. Yes, Vogelsong has beaten Kershaw twice. Yes, Zito has not killed us against the ‘Bums. But, there is something psychologically fortifying about sending out Madbum, The Freak, and Cainer and getting it done. 3 wins, a 0.87 ERA, 20.2 IP, and this is my favorite: 19 strikeouts and only 1 walk. The Dodgers are spending money and they have definitely improved their lineup over the course of the season, but the Giants have a better rotation and they showed it this week.
  2. The Giants swept the Dodgers in LA when by all accounts, at least nationally, they should have been folding in the wake of the Cabrara suspension. Losing Melky hurts, don’t get me wrong, but the Giants also won a World Series in 2010 without Pablo Sandoval. Yeah, he had a big hit against the Phillies, but he was not a significant part of that run at all. The key to that run was unbelievable starting pitching and having 2-3 guys in the lineup hot at any given time. Sometimes it was Burrell, sometimes it was Cody, sometimes it was Torres, and so it goes. The Giants still have enough firepower to get this done, IF they pitch up to their capabilities.

A couple of other thoughts:

  • Pagan is hitting great right now, Pence will be fine, Belt/Pill/etc will be adequate at first base, the real key to the Giants lineup right now is Marco Scutaro. He’s got second base and the second spot in the lineup on lock down and that makes so many other things fall into place. I think it’s helped Pagan in the lead off spot and it allows Bochy to use Arias/Crawfor/Theriot in spots where they can succeed.
  • Really, I think Hunter Pence is going to be fine.
  • I’ve never been so concerned about hamstrings in my entire life. Please hold up!
  • There is a part of me that desperately longs for Jeremy Affeldt to step and be the guy who can lock down the 9th inning. I don’t think it’s going to happen, which means let’s hope this Santiago Casilla resurgence is for real.
  • I also think it’s time to give the X-Man a shot at left field. He’s a poor man’s Pat Burrell. Let’s make this happen!

(-SB)

Catching Up

Since June 3rd:

The Giants have gone 10-9, and remain 3 GB of the Dodgers in the NL West. Note that Arizona has come on strong recently and is only 2.5 games behind the Giants!

Summary:

After a week off and another week away from the blog, we return to summarizing the action. No awards this week, just some thoughts…

So, Matt Cain is pretty good. I got back from vacation in time to turn on the game and see innings 3-9 of the perfect game. I kept saying: I’ll just watch one more and go to bed. But the perfection continued, and I stayed up, and it was totally worth it.

I have to admit this: I love Matt Cain, but I never thought he would get this good. He always seemed like the perfect #2 starter: innings, consistency, etc. But never the ridiculous, video game, fantasy stud kind of numbers that you expect from a Justin Verlander, or a Roy Halladay, or (dare I say) Tim Lincecum. Matt Cain was always good, but I didn’t think he’d jump to great, and this year he has been GREAT.

The other major development of the last couple of weeks: Brandon Belt. Looks like he’s got some freedom to just “be” now over there at first base and it seems to be paying off. Man was the turn around quick on that one. Now, obviously, he needs to keep this up for an extended period of time, but what an encouragement to see him get it going. The power, the on-base skills, the use of all fields. I’m a huge fan, so I’m probably a bit too giddy but I do wonder what the ceiling is? Votto lite? Carlos Pena with less power and better average? I’m not sure who he comps with, but I guess I don’t really care as long as he hits.

Looking Ahead:

Giants head home for a big time week: 3 with the Dodgers and 4 with the Reds. That’s three games with a chance to close the gap in the division and then 4 against the Central division leaders. Yeah, it’s at home, but that’s still a tough go. I’m not super excited about the Dodgers getting Zito, Vogelsong, and Lincecum again (same 3 as the only other series between these teams this year). Nonetheless, hopefully they can turn it around and take 2 of 3 this time to even out the season series.

(-SB)

Scrap Heap Signings

Let’s reflect. Growing up, I was able to pick any cereal once a year on my birthday. This was a big deal in my 8-year-old world for three reasons:

  1. I never got to eat “sugar” cereal. Lots of bran and strong intestinal tracts in my family.
  2. Cereal was my favorite food.
  3. The potential for not only some good cereal, but a sweet toy that was hidden in the box/bag.

Looking up and down the aisle like a giddy schoolboy, I would pick the cereal with the best potential for tasty cereal and a worthy toy. I would often go for the knock off cereal like “Lieutenant Crunch” due to its larger size and toy potential.

We are in the time of the baseball year where teams are scrambling to patch the remaining holes in their roster with second-rate talent. As exciting as it is to see Craig Counsel sign for his 17th one year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, it is a time when teams are hoping to find decent enough players to simply survive.

But underneath all the mundane signings, there is a tasty morsel of deliciousness that every MLB GM seeks to uncover. No, none of the GM’s will ever admit that any of these players will be “season changers” for their respective squad, but that doesn’t mean they still don’t hold out hope that their signing will be the one that everyone talks about. They will dig deep into that bag (because most generic cereals come in bags) of “Lieutenant Crunch” and try to unearth that toy that will revolutionize their season.

For every Craig Counsel, Fred Lewis, Terry Mulholland (yes, I just went late 80’s) and Garrett Atkins, there is a hidden jewel that is going to perform WAY over expectation and make every GM look like they have the foresight of an Old Testament prophet.

Enter the greatness that is Pat Burrell. He was sent to the scrap heap by Tampa Bay in the middle of 2010 and thought to be done. All the GM’s holding out to uncover the “toy” of greatness were scurrying around trying to find the piece that would send their team towards a second half playoff run. Initially signed to a minor league deal by the SF Giants, he became the power-bat-spark that played a huge role in getting the team to World Series.

I can still remember the scene of his clutch late inning HR against the Dodgers that stuck like an arrow in their heart. I was sitting on the patio of my buddy’s sunny Santa Cruz home drinking an adult beverage when David B. Flemming’s voice echoed through the Redwoods announcing the HR that we would never forget.

So, let’s sit back, nibble on some “Lieutenant Crunch” and watch all the GM’s scramble in the hopes that our team finds the hidden morsel of deliciousness that makes us say, “Brian Sabean is @%$W&* genius.”

(-JH)

Root, Root, Root for the Away Team?

We all know the tune. We’ve all gotten up and stretched during that space between the top and bottom of the 7th inning. But as long as I’ve been attending baseball games, I seem to have gotten the words wrong. You see, I no longer live in the same town as my team. I’m just a visitor. The proverbial “couch-surfer” of the sports fan community. The unfortunate “out of market” fan. I put on my orange and black, and brave the masses of LA blue to see my starting 9 take the diamond. But the more I’ve attended games as a fan of the visiting team, I’ve realized it’s not ALL bad.

The first out of market Giants game I went to was a few years back at Dodger Stadium. Without thinking, I threw on my throwback Will Clark shirt, and started hiking up the hill towards the entrance. On the way up, I was heckled, laughed at, and shouted at by a number of men in blue. Now, I’m all for a little back and forth with opposing fans, but never in my life have I been asked if I had “some kevlar underneath that filthy shirt”, or if I wanted to “have my face introduced to some Chuck Taylors”. I was getting a bit nervous about my choice in attire for the game.

Once I got into my seat, I started to forget about the far from friendly greetings from the local fans. And I started to have a good time. And here’s why. As an out of market fan, you’re the stand out. The misfit. You showed up to the black tie affair in a tuxedo shirt. But the thing about being the sore thumb is you’re never alone. I was spotted by 3 other Giants fans, and I was instantly part of their crew. They waved over to me, and shouted “Go G-Men!”

Having gone to Giants games in the bay area all my life, I had gotten used to seeing orange everywhere. But as a fan of the visiting team, seeing that orange was a whole new feeling.

Now I’m not saying that I would rather go to a game at Chavez Ravine than AT&T Park. But I am encouraging all you displaced fans to brave the hecklers, pull on that jersey, and go support your home team, even if you’re not at home. You’ll be surprised at the number of friends you’ll make. Just don’t forget to change the words to that song we all know and love during the 7th inning stretch.

(-TS)