Tag Archives: dodgers

The rest of the Post-Season

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Well, I hope you are all recovering from that Game 5 loss. It sucks, but there is a lot to look forward as we are about to fully enter into the Giants future and the full-blown Farhan Zaidi era (more on this coming soon).

Meanwhile, a quick thought on the rest of the post-season. I think the Astros will prevail against the Red Sox, and I fully expect the Dodgers to take down the Braves in 5. I feel bad writing that because the Braves are legitimately good, but I think the Dodgers hit the gas now, and win the whole thing in the relatively easy fashion.

This, of course, means an Astros-Dodgers World Series rematch. A lot has changed since then, but you know Dodger Stadium is going to be a crazy hostile environment, and as much as we all love Dusty Baker, his team does not have anywhere near the pitching to hold off that team. The Dodgers will get their revenge, and a winter of darkness will descend upon us all.

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PostSeason Predictions

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Very quickly I want to offer some post-season predictions and thoughts as this wacky tournament gets started. The reason I was most interested in the Giants making the field is that this is going to be CRAY, as the format levels the playing field even more than “normal.” In other words, get ready for some great baseball weirdness in the next couple weeks!

Who Will Win?

  • I hate to say it but I have to predict that the Dodgers are going to win it all. They were the best team during the 60 game sprint, by a lot. To so dramatically separate themselves from everyone else in such a short time is a testament to how ridiculously talented that team is. It may be one of the best teams of all time. I’m not trying to be ridiculous, just honest. And what’s amazing is that they might not even make it out of the first round. If Christian Yelich get his groove back that might be all it takes to completely upend the apple cart in the first round. Like I said: weirdness.
  • As a Giants fan I hate writing that last paragraph, but as a baseball observer it’s only sane thing to write. That same baseball observer also hopes for a Dodgers-Rays world series because that would pit the two deepest teams with the two smartest/best run front offices against each other, and that would very interesting to watch.

Who I Want To Win?

I’m all-in with the A’s. I know there’s some Bay Area weirdness still exists where this sort of thing is frowned upon, but come on guys, the A’s are fun, and our enemies are the Dodgers, not our friends in Green and Gold.

Having lived in Oakland for 4 years, it would mean a lot to the city, and it would be cool for a team that has fallen short so many teams, with so many good teams, to have all that redeemed in this strange season.

Go A’s.

Most Likely to Throw a Wrench in the System?

Don’t sleep on the Reds. They have very good pitching, and after a slow start to the season their offense got it going and that’s how they were able to sneak in. They are “better” than their record, and have the “easier” side of the bracket to get through. It would not be shocking to see them win the whole thing.

That’s it for now!

Postseason Predictions

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I’ll be back soon with some thoughts on the 2018 Giants’ season, their search for a new General Manager, and the quest for Bryce Harper (smiley face emoji).

But quickly: my predictions for October.

NL Wild Card: Cubs over Rockies
AL Wild Card: A’s over Yankees

NL Division Series: Brewers over Cubs, Dodgers over Braves
AL Division Series: Astros over Indians, Red Sox over the A’s

NL Championship Series: Brewers over Dodgers
AL Championship Series: Astros over Red Sox

World Series: Astros over Brewers

What MLB would like to see happen: Rod Sox/Yankees vs Cubs/Dodgers
What I would like to see happen: I’m rooting for the Indians
 

One More Christmas Wish

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Ok, well, at least Giancarlo Stanton is not going to the Dodgers =)

This is a good news, bad news situation for the Giants, and allows for a part 2 to yesterday’s post.

The good news is that Stanton is not going to LA, and, in fact, is leaving the National League all together. Meanwhile the Yankees are creating a juggernaut similar to the one they had in the early to mid-2000’s (a version of Yankees juggernaut that never won a World Series, for the record).

The bad news is that Giants did not get Stanton, and in addition, the stakes for the 2018 offseason just got a bit higher. The Dodgers and the Cubs now become the early leaders for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

It is the official position of this website that the Giants should be ALL IN on Manny Machado from this day forth. While Bryce Harper is the only left-handed hitter in the game who would not be intimidated by playing at AT&T, Machado makes more sense for a couple of reasons:

  1. He plays a position of greater need, 3B. We are living in a golden age of third basemen, and somehow the Giants have completely whiffed here. I would argue, positionally, Machado would be more valuable. Plus, he hits right-handed and balances their Panik/Crawford middle infield.
  2. He will be expensive, but not as expensive as Harper.
  3. He has a personality. So does Harper. Both are fiery guys who have rubbed opposing players (and their own teammates) the wrong way. I am totally ok with this. The Giants, long known for a great clubhouse culture, need someone to bring the life and energy and edge back.
  4. He is Latino. San Francisco is one of the most diverse areas in the entire world, and the Giants have a proliferation of guys from Georgia and North Carolina. How do the Giants not have a star level player from outside the US? (My apologies to Johnny Cueto and Pablo Sandoval who are past their star primes at this point). This is the franchise of Willie Mays, Millie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Kevin Mitchel, Barry Bonds, Dusty Baker, Ellis Burks, the Alous, Omar Vizquel, and so many others, but that stream has dried up recently. Bring me Jackie Bradley Jr and Manny Machado!

I laid out some ideas yesterday that could help improve the team in 2018 and open up the possibility of a run at Harper/Machado next winter, but I want to add one more.

I would love to be surprised. The Giants, especially since 1997 under Brian Sabean, have been known to surprise. The big moment was trading Matt Williams for Jeff Kent. But there have been other surprising moves, trades for guys who we weren’t super excited about but ended up being awesome. A couple of my favorites: Javy Lopes, Freddy Sanchez, and Angel Pagan.

The Giants have unearthed endless gems in many different ways, from Cody Ross to Connor Gillespe, from Jason Schmidt to Ryan Vogelsong.

I’m excited for the new gems. Who might they be?

One final thought. If you are afraid of the Yankees right now there’s good reason to feel that way. But, I would point out that they did this before and the A-Rod era produced one title, and it’s arguable how important A-Rod was to that team.

The Yankees went and spent a ton of money before 2009 and that produced a title, but then the Giants and Cardinals started their runs. The Giants took down the unbeatable Phillies and Rangers and Reds and Nationals and Cardinals and Tigers and Royals. Every era has had some incredible teams.

This era has some really incredible teams, probably some of the best in the last 20 years. The Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Astros, Nationals, and Indians are all stacked. The Rockies, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels are very good too. Look out for the Mariners and the Twins and probably a few other teams that come out of nowhere to be good.

Things look very bleak for the Giants right now. They did 10 years ago too, and we all know how that turned out.

Trade Deadline Quick Thoughts

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The Dodgers are a demon-monster of a 25 man roster. They are coming for your soul and your children and they will show no mercy.

The Giants didn’t do a whole lot at the deadline, which is basically what everyone had come to accept about a week ago, and in its own way is a terrible indictment on the state of this franchise.

They are too good to be this bad. Not good enough to offload anyone. Stuck in neutral. Which, compared to the Dodgers, means moving backwards.

When the Giants blew game 4 to the Cubs last year I was not crushed. It was not 2002 or 1993 or 2003 or 1997 or 2000 or 1998 or 1987 or 2004.

Part of the reason I was not crushed was because of the entirely predictable nature of the choke. This was not the Warriors going scoreless during the final 4+ minutes of a Game 7. This was a good team with a bad bullpen letting its season slip away thanks to a bad bullpen.

At the time I wrote: Mark Melancon and we’re good. Or something like that.

And then that’s exactly what the Giants did.

Which is to say, part of the reason I wasn’t crushed is I expected the Giants to be right back there again, but with a weakness addressed and solidified.

But the further the wheels fall of this wagon, the more I wish for the chance to see a game 5.

Partly because I do wonder about a hangover from that type of defeat. It feels like all the wind that got sucked out of the sails has just continued to be sucked. (I really enjoy that sentence).

But also partly because it may be a long while before we see the postseason again.

There is a magnificent gap between the Giants and the Dodgers right now. It’s evident on the 25 man roster, the 40 man roster,in  the minor league systems, and in the ways these teams are going about constructing rosters.

You don’t erase that kind of gap with a few tweaks here and there. And that is a major concern.

That having been said, I get the impression from some parts of the internet that this season is validation for why the 2010, 2012, 2014 were “lucky”. Or some version of that. In essence: those teams weren’t very good, they got by with a great manager and a couple awesome performances.

This really bothers me. Without doing a deep dive, it is important to remember that the 2010 team had one of the best pitching staffs top to bottom of any team in the last 20+ years.

The 2012 team was balanced and took the “put the ball in play” philosophy to maximum heights (by the way, the 2014-2015 Royals did the same thing).

The 2014 team is the one championship that fits the general argument being made, but folks forget that that team was the best team in baseball through the first 80 or so games (not unlike the 2016 Giants).

Dynasties fade. The Phillies were incredible from 2008-2012 and now they are deep in a rebuild. The 2017 Cardinals are a slightly better version of the Giants, but are still struggling through a transition period. The Patriots and Warriors will one day go through this as well.

The crash doesn’t make what came before illegitimate, it just means an era is over.

The question for the Giants is how closed is this era, and who will be around for the next one?

Second Half Predictions

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The Giants picked up the second half right where they left off: Johnny Cueto underwhelmed, they still can’t win a MadBum start, Samardzija is ever the enigma, and the offense kept sputtering right along.

There’s not much to review here, but it was great to see Madison Bumgarner back! That start was the best case scenario for all involved: several innings, quality performance, no high stress pitch counts…quite frankly it was a game a good team would have won.

Rather than dig any deeper into that, or into fantastical scenarios that will never happen, let’s make a few predictions about the second half:

  • Giants predictions: the only bold prediction that is mildly interesting to make here is that Brandon Belt will hit 30 home runs, the first to do it since some guy named Barry. Other than that: the Giants will make some trades and hope to get some bounce backs from the Crawford’s and Moore’s of the roster. On to the rest of baseball.
  • The Cubs will be fine. My big second half baseball prognostication is that the Cubs will win the Central. Then they went out and won 3 straight games by the combined score of 27-11. They’ll be fine. The NL postseason is going to be a blood bath.
  • The AL pennant race is going to be interesting with so many teams in play still, but it’s all a prelude to the Astros steamrolling their way to the World Series.
  • Aaron Judge is awesome, but he won’t hit 50 home runs to break Mark McGwire’s rookie HR record.
  • I should be picking the Dodgers to win it all, but I can’t do that and so I’m going to get all sentimental and pick the Dusty Baker National’s to win the whole thing.

A couple more thoughts on the World Series. MLB seems to obsess far too much over who gets into the WS and it’s impact on ratings. It’s stupid, but to close out this week’s post, here is what Rob’s crew has to be rooting for:

  1. Dodgers and Yankees (two iconic franchises and some serious star power).
  2. Cubs and Red Sox (the Epstein series)
  3. Dodgers and Red Sox (similar to 1)
  4. Dodgers and Astros (especially if they hold up their best records in each league)
  5. Cubs and Yankees
  6. Nationals and Yankees (especially as a potential preview to Bryce Harper’s future team)

What they are probably NOT rooting for:

  1. Milwaukee and Minnesota
  2. Colorado and Kansas City
  3. Arizona and Houston

Or some combination of those teams.

Baseball monk prediction: Nationals over Astros in 6

Week [20] In Review/Week [21] in Preview #sfgiants

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I am getting tired of trying to explain the buffoonery we’ve been watching since the All-Start break ended, so today we are going to focus on the future, and some keys to a critical week in the season.

One thought of hope to act as our week in review: it is getting better. Slowly and still painfully, but better.

This week is huge, obviously, because we get the first of the 3 remaining series with the Dodgers. That’s 9 more games where the Giants hold their destiny in their own hands. I don’t trust their hands right now with their destiny, but these games are happening whether we want them to or not.

One of the interesting things about the last 6 years is that for the most part both the Giants and Dodgers have been very good. They’ve spent money, made big trades, have stars and talent, and yet it hasn’t felt like a rivalry.

This is not a Giants’ fan making a dig at the fact that the Dodgers haven’t won a world series while the Giants have won three. There’s plenty of time for that.

It’s more just a statement of fact, and I think it has to do with the fact that both teams have been successful, but not really at each other’s expense. In 2010 the Giants crushed the Padres hopes, and in 2012 and even in the 2014 the Giants and Dodgers avoided knocking each other out contention.

This is really the first time where the stakes are high and these two teams stand in each other’s way. There’s still a very good chance the division loser makes the wild card, but for some reason that feels like a significant defeat. Perhaps it’s because the Giants have frittered away such a large lead.

Whatever it is, 2016 is shaping up as either an opportunity to further mock our LA friends, or really, really hate the Dodgers. And that makes it kind of fun!

Series Preview: The “big story” is the Giants are skipping the 5th starter spot to lineup Bumgarner, Cueto, and Moore for this three game tilt. The other big story is that this allows the Giants to throw two left-handers against the Dodgers lefty heavy lineup.

Remember, also, this is part of the reason the Giants made the trade for Matt Moore. Matt Moore’s day of reckoning is Thursday. He can erase any questions about the trade by shutting the Dodgers down.

The Dodgers counter with Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill (finally making his debut), and TBD. Those first two are formidable opponents, but this sets up well in the Giants favor. Taking less than 2 of 3, even in LA, would be disappointing.

The Giants get to come home and beat on the Braves over the weekend, while the Dodgers have to do battle against the Cubs, so there’s good potential for this to be a big swing week.

Key Pitcher of the Week: I want to pick Santiago Casilla because the bullpen is going to be important and will need to be on against the Dodgers, but the key really is Matt Moore. He will be starting under one of the following conditions:

  • Pitching for a sweep (and a 2 game division lead)
  • Pitching for a series win (and to tie for first)
  • Pitching to avoid a sweep (and avoid falling, gasp, 4 games back)

Any one of those scenarios will be significant. He’s also pitching against a front office that knows him well, so he will need to make adjustments and bring his control of the strike zone with him to the office on Thursday.

Hitter of the Week: This may seem too obvious but Buster Posey needs to hit well against the Dodgers. A big Buster series takes the pressure off, and one big problem for the Giants right now is you can see Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, and Joe Panik trying to do too much in every at bat. Those dudes need to chill, and Buster going off will do wonders for their chill factors.

That’s all I got this week. It’s time to win games. Go Giants.

Week [2] In Review (April 13-19) #SFGiants

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When trying to evaluate what you see on the field this year, it is important to revisit what happened this offseason. In many ways this was one of the more fascinating offseasons for the Giants, even if the end result was decidedly boring. To summarize:

  • The Giants wanted Pablo Sandoval back to play third base. They were even willing to pay him more than anyone else. But he didn’t want to be here. You can nitpick and say the Giants should have shown him more respect, and blah blah blah, but the ship sailed on Pablo when the Giants went all in with Buster Posey. Lesson: whatever you see happen at 3B this year, you cannot rightfully say “Pablo would have done this or that,” because it was never Pablo or Casey, or Pablo or Matt. There was never going to be a Pablo.
  • Speaking of third base when the Giants’ brass said “We have no internal candidates,” they were sort of telling the truth and sort of lying. Did they have someone in line to replace Pablo? No. Did they have someone who favorably compared to other top third basemen, like say Josh Donaldson? No. Did they/Do they have a better alternative to a Casey McGehee type player? Yes. Matt Duffy is Casey McGehee but younger, more athletic, a better base runner, more versatile, and most importantly right now: health. And also probably better. That is what you should think about when you see whatever happens with third base this year.
  • The Giants wanted Jon Lester/James Shields to help anchor the starting staff. Those guys, again, spurned the Giants better/more lucrative offers to go places they felt more comfortable. That is a bummer, but it is reality, and it’s why you are watching Jake Peavy give it a go every fifth day (when he comes off the DL).

This is really important to remember because the problem isn’t Nori Aoki, or Jake Peavy, or even Casey McGehee. The problem is the Giants front office did not get equal or comparable players to replace the guys they lost (Pablo, Michael Morse, etc). And that’s mostly because those guys didn’t want to come to San Francisco.

And, the truth is, in the long run, Giants fan will probably count their lucky stars that their team is not paying for the expensive declines of fat Pablo, or old Lester, or breaking down Shields.

Which leads us to the hardest of all truths: the Giants are firmly in transition year, but no wants to admit it. 2015 is not about defending a title as much as it basking in a great 5 year run and gearing up for another one (hopefully) by taking inventory.

2015 is about discovering if Matt Cain will be good again. It’s about learning if Chris Heston or anyone else in the high minors could be a helpful major leaguer. It’s about learning if Joe Panik is an every day second basemen of if he’ll need a platoon partner. It’s a make or break year for Brandon Belt.

And, it may be the year the Giants begin to decide if Buster Posey is going to be a first basemen.

This is not to say that you should throw in the towel. It’s still too early to do that. But, the writing looks like it is firmly on the wall. Don’t complain too much folks, we have a lot to be thankful for.

If you are the optimistic type rejoice in the fact that it probably can’t get much worse. When we looked at the best/worst case scenarios for this team, all the worst case scenarios have already come true. So, either it is doomsday, or it’s nothing but up from here.

If you are a pessimist, man you are having a field day! Everything that we imagined going wrong has/is, and this next week doesn’t hold out much hope. So, check out those golden rings and watch your recordings from last year’s postseason, because there is no relief in sight.

Hitter of the Weak Week:

Angel Pagan hit well over .300 this week, but it’s been a quiet .300. The lack of extra base hitting from the middle of the lineup is alarming. Brandon Belt and Crawford showed a few signs of potentially breaking out of their funks, but the team desperately needs more from them, especially Belt. Matt Duffy continues to be the superior option to Casey McGehee, and we even saw the BaseballMonk sponsored lineup (Susac at C, Posey at 1B, and Belt in LF) rolled out on Sunday.

I have to go with Joe Panik for this week, though, because he is finally showing up. Keep it up and get hot Joe.

Pitcher of the Week:

No debate here. For the second week in a row the brightest beam of light continues to be Chris Heston. I’m not too worried about Madison Bumgarner, and I like the way Hudson and Lincecum are battling. But right now, Heston is the closest thing to a sure bet in this rotation. Which is simultaneously frightening and encouraging. He may be back in AAA by the middle of May, but for now Long Live Chris Heston!

Looking Ahead:

The Giants get a merciful day off on Monday, and then, of course, the Dodgers come to town. And the Giants will have to face Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. So, buckle up, friends, the road only gets bumpier!

-SB

3 Thoughts on the Winter Meetings #SFGiants

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1. I meant to write about this during the playoffs, but didn’t get around to it. But, the Dodgers are scary. And we just saw why. They now have smart and savvy people calling the shots, along with boatloads of money. Imagine if the Yankees hired Billy Beane. That’s who the Dodgers are now. It’s the most special of all the sauces.

This is not to say that NL West race is over, or that the Giants are screwed. The Giants seem to have their own special sauce, and it takes great, thank you very much. And, as always, it’s important to remember that no one wins the World Series just because they made some moves in December.

But the Dodgers just got a lot better.

A lot.

2. On finishing second. It is frustrating that the Giants seem to be making a habit of being everyone’s second choice (see Lester, Jon, and Tomas, Yasmany, and Abreu, Jose). Every rumored name we keep hearing about (Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana, you name it) is getting snapped up by some other team.

Two points to make here: First, the Giants are thinking about the Jon Lester’s of the world, which means the team has resources and a willingness to spend. They didn’t lose out because they’ve had poor offers, they’ve lost because someone else was more appealing for whatever reason. Second, the Giants are very disciplined in this process, which is a really good thing. $120 million would have brought back Pablo and been a very stupid thing to do. They didn’t do it. Sometimes that no compromise attitude means losing the bid, but it also means staying within the game plan, and if I had one fear this off-season it is that the Giants would stray from the game plan.

3. What now? At the beginning of the offseason I wanted Pablo back and a couple of pitchers, primarily Ervin Santana. Both are gone. The hot rumors of the day seem to indicate that the Giants are pursuing James Shields. Also, Chase Headley is still available. If they get both of those guys for a combined total less than Lester’s money, that would be a huge win and represent an upgrade over my original hopes.

-SB

Thoughts and Predictions for the DS #MLBplayoffs

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1. Tigers vs. Orioles. These teams are mirrors of each other. Baltimore hits home runs, plays great defense, and has a stellar bullpen. Detroit has the THE STAR and the starters. This is going to be the ultimate test of postseason theories: do you need strong starting, defense, bullpen, or home runs to win?

  • Prediction: Tigers in 4. The Tigers will not win the world series with that bullpen (we’ve heard this story before), but they have more than enough to get past an Orioles team that lacks dominant starting pitchers.

2. Angels vs. Royals. The Angels have the best record and offense in baseball. The Royals bunt and steal all the time and have the best bullpen in the postseason. Will this be bedlam in KC or Mike Trout’s national coming-out-party?

  • Prediction: I want to pick the Royals so badly. I really, really do. Oh, I want to pick them. In fact, a couple of months ago when I was sketching things out, I thought they might have the best path to the World Series in the American League. That, though, was based on them winning the division, which they did not do. Furthermore, that game against the A’s revealed just how clueless Ned Yost can be. Sometimes, and it is rare, a manager can help win a series, usually they are fairly neutral, and there are some times where they are an all-out liability, and I fear that is where Yost is. Yikes. Angels in 4.

3. Dodgers vs. Cardinals. Of course they are playing each other, which means, if the Giants get through they will have to play their long-standing mortal enemies (the Dodgers, just in case you didn’t know), or the team Giants’ fans have learned to hate in recent years (the Cardinals, mostly for being the Cardinals). And even if the Giants don’t make it through it means one of these teams will play the Nationals (who we will then hate) in an absolutely awful NLCS. This is the most detestable of all possible matchups.

  • Prediction: Mattingly is horrible, the bullpen is shaky, and the non-Kershaw/Greinke starters are a major liability. Plus Puig will do something stupid at some point. Otherwise the Dodgers are basically unbeatable. The Cardinals had a surprisingly bad offensive season, some shakiness in the rotation (that seems to have been shored up), and are here mainly because the Brewers faded so badly. And yet, they are the Cardinals, the team, other than the Giants, most likely to play flawlessly in October. I won’t be the least bit surprised if the Cardinals win this series, but I’m going with the Dodgers in 5.

4. Giants vs. Nationals. The Nationals are the best team, in my opinion, top to bottom in this tournament. So, of course, the Giants get them in a short series. Awesome. That being said, the only result here that would be shocking to me is a sweep by either team. Mostly, though I just don’t see the Giants laying down. It’s going to go 5 either way. I’ll have a bigger preview tomorrow morning, but for now a couple of silver linings for the Giants: the Nationals have a lot of right-handed starting pitching. They are really good, so that part stinks, but the right-handedness plays into the hands of a lineup that is heavy lefty right now. Second silver lining: Matt Williams is a rookie manager, and only 4 times has a rookie manager won a World Series. The last one to do it, of course, was another ex-Giant, Bob Brenly, whose team won in spite of him, not because of him. Loved Matt Williams as a third baseball in the black and orange, but he might be a liability.

  • Prediction: The Nationals are too deep to go down to a Giants team lacking Angel Pagan, Michael Morse, and Matt Cain. Nationals in 5.

-SB