Tag Archives: 2012

Are the Giants Lucky or Good? #SFGiants #2014postseason

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Read national media accounts of the Giants win over the Nationals and you will discover a seething frustration with how this (apparently terrible) team continues to win postseason series. I’ve seen everything from luck to dark magic posited as explanations. I would like to address the question of lucky or good.

The facts: The Giants have won 8 straight postseason series (including the 1-game wild card playoff this year). During that time they have won 26 games and lost 10. That is a .722 winning percentage., which is obviously higher than one could expect over the course of a regular season. There is no doubt that in order to win that often you must catch your share of breaks. And the Giants have. Kinsler’s ball that hit the top of the wall and came back. Cody Ross getting hot at the right time. Barry Zito. That Pagan ball that hit the third base bag in the 2012 World Series. Certainly there are numerous other examples.

There are also a number of breaks that went against the Giants that could have spelled doom. When they lost game 2 to the Braves back in 2010, it was a classic Giants postseason meltdown. Blowing a lead, leaving runners on, a rally that died on the vine. They nearly blew a 6-0 lead in game 5 against the Reds in 2012. Bumgarner threw a ball down the left field line on Monday afternoon. Posey got thrown out at the plate (twice) by mere inches in this latest series.

The point here is to say that weirdness happens in the postseason and it affects both teams in any given series. The Giants aren’t any more lucky or unlucky than anyone else.

Some will then point out the unbelievable nature of individual performances. Again, Cody Ross in 2010. Zito and Scutaro in 2012. Pablo’s three home runs in the 2012 World Series. Petit in 2014. Let me address a few of these.

The fact that Cody Ross got hot in 2010 is fortunate, there is no doubt about that. But, Cody Ross is/was a really good player, one talented enough to pull off such a feat. This is one of the main themes of the Giants success. The timing of the performance is what is remarkable, not the performance itself. He’s hit over 20 home runs in three seasons, and often hits them in remarkable bunches. Eli Whiteside hitting several postseason home runs would have been lucky. Cody Ross, though, is a good player going off at the right time.

Same conversation for Marco Scutaro, only this time the player is even more skilled. Scutaro was designed by God to be a good postseason hitter. Everything about his approach: the swing, the patience, the ability to make contact, and his relaxed demeanor are ideally suited for playoff baseball. It just happened to be that he was on the Giants in 2012.

Barry Zito providing two quality starts in 2012 was improbable, but not lucky. This is a guy who won a college world series, who won a CY Young award, and who tended to pitch better later in the season than earlier during his Giants tenure. Did anyone see it coming? No. But lucky is Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes pitching well in the 2006 World Series (shots fired Cardinals). Zito rediscovering his old form one last time is unlikely, but not lucky.

Finally, the two that really get me are Pablo and Petit. Were the Giants fortunate to have Pablo hit 3 home run in Game One of a World Series? Absolutely. But, Pablo is a very skilled hitter, with incredible power, who quite honestly should have more games like that. When a hitter like Pablo has a game like that, that’s a reflection of his great skill. Yes, the timing was fortuitous, but luck would have been Brandon Crawford or Scutaro hitting 3 home runs, not Pablo.

And then, Petit. All this guy has done is nearly pitch a perfect game (last September), and then set the record for most consecutively retired batters. And that record isn’t two amazing starts in a week where he was really feeling it. That record came by pitching over several weeks, in a variety of settings, on different mounds, and against all sorts of batters. It is really one of the most remarkable records in baseball if you think of it. Are the Giants lucky to have such a great weapon on their staff. Maybe. But, I think it is more about shrewd roster construction, and a battle tested pitcher coming through in a big moment to help the team win the longest game in postseason history.

To sum it all up, the Giants are a team that is more than its parts. It doesn’t have the names and the numbers of other squads. But, that does not mean it is a team devoid of talent. There are some highly skilled players on this roster. Those skilled players are deployed by a smart manager (one of the best?) in such way that allows them to be successful.

They are constructed to succeed in these settings. They are load with great arms who can strike out batters and keep the ball in the park. They play mistake free (for the most part) defense, and they have some of the best range in the game (meaning over the course of the season they will make errors, but at any moment can get to a lot of balls). They are strong up the middle (Posey, Crawford, Panik, and Blanco). They make a lot of contact, and when you make contact weird/good things can happen. And they have a manager who is active and willing to mix it up and do what it takes to win a particular game.

In other words, they are not designed to win 99 games (like the Angels), but they are designed to be able to win any given game. And that is really important to understand. Take the 2001 Yankees for example. That World Series was full of dramatic moments, and of course everyone remembers the game 7 walk off moments. But, the game before that, which the Yankees could have won to secure the title, the Diamondbacks blew out the Yankees 15-4. The Giants have never had a game like that in these 3 postseason runs. I can only think of one game where they were truly out of it in the last third (the Lincecum, Game 4, start against the Cardinals). In a short series, the ability to stay close in every game dramatically helps your chance of survival.

Finally, three more things. First, timing (or context) is everything: the Giants have constructed the right roster for this era of baseball. It is a much more wide open game than 15 years ago. You don’t need the firepower or star power that was once needed to take down the Yankees. The Giants somewhat flawed teams can succeed in this era of parity.

Second, don’t discount the importance of a presence like Buster Posey. I know the stats people won’t like this, but I do think there are winning players and losing players. No disrespect to Adrian Gonzalez, but I think he is a losing player. Again and again, his teams fade and falter at the end of seasons. Posey’s seem to get better. Pay attention to that.

Third, I don’t believe in Karma as a life philosophy, but I do see some sort of symmetry (or coming back aroundness) in the Giants history. For example, the 2010 team was the perfect counter point to the 2002 team that blew the World Series. The 2002 team had a great lineup, the 2010 squad had great starting pitching. 2002 choked it away, 2010 slammed the door on any weird comebacks.

2012 served as the counterpoint to 2003. Both were incredibly steady teams that did everything fairly well. In 2003 the Giants dropped a fly ball and crumbled. In 2012, with their backs up against the wall they just won.

If this 2014 version goes on to win it all, it will, in a small way, make up for 1993. I would give just about anything for a glimpse at the alternate reality where the 1993 Giants get to play in the postseason, but short of that I’ll take this team winning it all as the baseball gods making things right.

Previews and thoughts on the NLCS forthcoming.

-SB

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More Pagan!

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Today the Giants signed Angel Pagan. He’ll be back, leading off and roaming around center field.

Love the signing for a couple of reasons:

  1. The money: only $40 million. To me, this is a deal. BJ Upton just signed for $75 million, Michael Bourn wants way more than that, and I would guess the Nationals extend Denard Span (who they just traded for) for more money than this. Plus, considering how many other teams (Reds, Phillies, etc) want a top of the order/CF type, it feels like the Giants stole this. Most fans were hoping the contract would not resemble Aaron Rowand’s 5 yr/$60 million deal and this is not even close.
  2. The structure: A $5 million signing bonus, which might as well be tacked on to last year. This a “thanks for that World Series” bonus. The rest of the $35 million will be spread over the four years like this: 7, 9, 9, 10. What this means is there is a small chance that Pagan ever prevents the Giants from doing something else they want to do (like extend a player or get a free agent).

What I don’t love:

  1. The years. I really do hope Gary Brown turns out to be the All-Star, top of the order, dynamo many have predicted. I’d hate to see Pagan block that. I also don’t think 35-year-old Angel Pagan will be an everyday CF. Could be wrong, but I also hope I am right, because then Gary Brown can do his thing. Either way, not stoked about that fourth year.

Bottom Line: Good move Giants. Other than a three-year deal, I do not see how this could have turned out any better. Let’s hope Pagan stays healthy and continues to do his thing for the Giants.

(-SB)

Let’s Trade Tim Lincecum

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It’s election night, so to keep from going crazy let’s think about baseball!

I begin with the following premise: the free agent market is a dangerous trap of fools gold, dashed dreams, and sorrow. Last offseason the “winners” were the Angels and the Marlins and neither of them made the playoffs. Another winner was the Tigers and we all know how that ended.

However, teams that made good trades included the A’s, the Nationals, the Orioles, and…wait for it…the Giants. None of those trades made the kinds of headlines that Pujols and Wilson and Reyes and Fielder made, but they sure turned out really, really well for each team.

All that to say: bringing back Pagan and Scutaro and Affeldt and potentially filling the LF hold through FA doesn’t bode well for the Giants in the short, or, especially, the long-term.

I think the Giants will get Scutaro and get him at a decent value. I don’t know that the Giants get Pagan and even if they do it will almost assuredly be an overpay.

It’s time then to get creative! Here’s my thinking: I believe Anibal Sanchez is a value buy in this FA market. If the Giants could get him at 4 yrs/$52 mil I think that would be a steal. That signing would give the Giants 6 starting pitchers, making one expendable.

Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are not going anywhere. Barry Zito, redemption or not, is still pretty untradable, and even if he could be moved it wouldn’t bring much back other than salary relief. Ryan Vogelsong is interesting: he could bring back value due to his small contract, but I don’t see it happening.

That leaves Tim Lincecum.

Reasons NOT to Trade Tim Lincecum:

  1. He just had a horrible season and his value is at all time low.
  2. He is owed $20+ million next year so he can probably only be traded to a rich team or else the Giants will have to eat salary.
  3. He is, in many ways, still the face of the franchise.
  4. Tim Lincecum, when he is right, is better than Anibal Sanchez.

Reasons TO Trade Tim Lincecum

  1. In addition to what I mentioned above, I think there are two interesting scenarios for the Giants. The first is to try to match up with a team like the Royals/Twins/Cleveland who desperately need pitching. The Giants throw in the cash to cover the salary and steal an Alex Gordon-type player (plus a reliever) to cover an outfield spot and bolster the bullpen. The Giants don’t have to deal with Tim’s drama if things don’t go well and actually get something in return for a player who will hit FA after 2013.
  2. Now, here is where I really want to go. The Giants should trade Lincecum to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury. I have a secret fantasy of Ellsbury and Gary Brown at the top of the Giants lineup. Ellsbury is in a similar place to Lincecum: a year away from FA, some impressive years under his belt, but still with something to prove. The Red Sox need pitching, the Giants might need help in the outfield and at the top of the order. The trade allows both teams time decide if they want to commit to each player long-term. If it doesn’t work out, it was only a year.

Undoubtedly, the best case scenario for the Giants is that Tim Linceucm comes back strong and pitched like 2010 Timmy. But, creative trades paved the way for many successful teams last year and might be the right antidote to a crazy, overspending spree on the near horizon.

(-SB)

Big Answers

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Yesterday we posted 5 Big Questions the Giants face this offseason. Today we try to answer them.

1) What can we expect from Tim Lincecum:

  • a) He continues to suck, the Giants figure out something to do with him (bullpen?), and let him walk at the end of the year.
  • b) He bounces back fully and the Giants have a big decision to make next offseason about what to do with him.
  • c) The Giants try to sign him this offseason at a discount
  • d) The Giants trade him this offseason. His lowered value doesn’t get the same return as a few years ago, but it could a be a good return and it would resolve (a) and (b).

My opinion is that Tim Lincecum is going to bounce back in a major way next year. I think he will be in better shape, I think he will work out the kinks in his motion, and I think he will prove to be a better pitcher than ever (if not quite as dominant) in 2013.

Tim can’t just throw a 95 mph fastball at the top of the zone and come right back with an 84 mph change that drop off the table anymore. But he can be extremely effective by relearning his fastball and by getting his mechanics to a place where he has better control (if less velocity). He is too good, too competitive, and too young to be washed up as a starter.

  • What should happen: I think the Giants should try to sign Timmy this offseason and enjoy the bounce back at a discounted rate.
  • What will happen: I think the Giants will stand pat, let the season play out, and make a Lincecum decision next offseason.

2) Can the rotation back up their performance:

A huge part of the answer to this question has to do with Lincecum finding himself. The Giants had their worst ERA+ as a staff this year (95) since 2006. And this was the first year with a below average ERA+ during this run of success. A lot of that was due to Lincecum posting the worst ERA+ of any starter in the big leagues. Like I said, a Timmy bounce-back is the biggest way the whole team improves in 2013.

I also think Madison Bumgarner will have a huge year next year. I’m a huge MadBum fan, and I think the kid just ran out of gas this year. But he’s a big strong kid who will learn how to build strength as the year goes on. I think he takes another step forward which only makes the rotation that much more solid.

I’m mildly concerned about Matt Cain. He threw 250 innings this year, and while the dude is a horse I think some fatigue showed up in the post-season: too many home runs. However, there’s no reason to suggest he doesn’t do what Matt Cain always does: pitch well.

Ryan Vogelsong is also a concern. Late bloomers tend to fall and fall quickly. I expect Vogelsong to be very effective next year, but I think we will see more ups and downs.

Barry Zito is Barry Zito. He’ll have some starts that make you wish you had never turned the TV on and he’ll have some starts that make you think he could win the CY Young again. In the end he will have an ERA just north of 4.00 and win double-digit games. (One caveat here: If Zito hits 200 innings his 2014 team option vests…I would guess they manage that pretty carefully next year).

  • What should happen: the Giants staff should continue to be the strength of this team and Madison Bumgarner will be in the conversation for the CY Award at season’s end.
  • What will happen: I think the Giants will take a flier on a Vogelsong-like pitcher this offseason who will prove to be valuable because Vogelsong will miss time due to injury.

3) Can the lineup stay healthy: The real heart of this question, as I mentioned yesterday, is this…will this be the year we finally get to see Panda and Posey together, at full strength, in the middle of the lineup.

It is obviously impossible to predict health with any reasonable accuracy, but Panda and Posey will be in the 26-27 year old window the next two years, typically two of the most productive years for baseball players. If healthy I think we see a potent 1-2 combo in the middle of the lineup.

  • What should happen: Posey and Panda come to camp next year in shape and highly motivated for personal and team success.
  • What will happen: I think this is exactly what will happen with the addendum that the Giants sign Posey to a long-term deal this offseason.  

4) Will the Giants make the same mistakes from 2010: After the 2010 Championship the Giants just had to bring back Aubrey Huff and Freddy Sanchez. Oops. Aubrey felt necessary because no one knew what to expect from Pablo and there were no other legitimate middle of the order hitters in the Giants lineup. But that was a frustrating signing as it seemed to block Brandon Belt. Freddy Sanchez was blocking no one and even though we all knew of his propensity for injury it seemed like a good idea.

The Giants are in a similar situation with Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Affeldt. It is hard to imagine a Giants team in 2013 without those guys on the roster. However, they are all going to be in demand this offseason, and they are not going to be cheap. And they are not exactly young (Pagan being the youngest at 31). I’ve already heard about a Rowand (5 ys/$60 mil) type deal for Pagan, and Affeldt’s market just shot through the roof (no thanks to the Dodgers) now that Brandon League signed a 3 year/$22 mil deal.

TradeRumors has the Giants bringing back all three. I would love to see the three return, but I do wonder if the Giants will end up signing contracts that they later regret. I can’t imagine Scutaro getting more than three years (it really should be 2, with an option at most), which I think is ok, but Pagan for 5? Yikes! Affeldt at $8-10 million a year? Whoa!

Complicating matters is that the Giants have top prospects at CF and 2B. Gary Brown and Joe Panik seemed locks to make at least an appearance in 2013 (if not the opening day roster) after 2011, but they both had years that raised some questions. They cannot be expected to make an impact in 2013. But by 2014? Sure. I’d hate to see them blocked.

Affeldt is a huge weapon, but the Giants have two other lefties coming back next year (Lopez and Mijares). They also have Dan Runzler who actually could fulfill the role Affeldt plays (lefty who can get righties out too) if he can stay healthy.

All of this shapes up to be quite fascinating.

  • What should happen: The Giants should bring them all back, but at reasonable deals. I’d be ok with Scutaro on a 2-year, $18 million deal (with an option for a third), Pagan for 3 years at $36 million, and Affeldt for 2 years at $15 million.
  • What will happen: The Giants will bring them all back, but overpay severely, especially for Pagan.

5) Will the Giants make a splash in Free Agency: Assuming the above happens, the Giants will only have one significant hole and that involves Left Field. (Amazing trivia note from Baggs: did you know the Giants biggest FA signing last year was Ryan Theriot at $1.75 million. They spent a ton of money on existing guys, but that still caught me off guard).

The Giants have come up in a few Josh Hamilton rumors and there is always the possibility that another Championship could lead to (over)confident spending.

The answer to this question really lies in what happen with Scutaro, Pagan, and Affeldt, especially Pagan. If Pagan goes elsewhere the Giants might jump in on someone like Michael Bourn or BJ Upton.

The bigger question here is this: do the Giants take a flier on Melky Cabrera? Do they utilize a Blanco/Nady platoon (or some other right-handed, power hitting outfielder)? Do they have another trick up their sleeve?

  • What should happen: Assuming the “big 3” return, I think the Giants should bring back Cody Ross and use him in a platoon with Gregor Blanco in left field.
  • What will happen: This is the hardest one for me to predict and so much of it has to do with the other impending free agents. I don’t think the Giants will spend big, especially on a left fielder, so I do see them considering some kind of a platoon here, but I honestly have no idea how this one shakes out. I also wouldn’t count out a Cabrera return.

There you have it. I’m sure this will all get revised and mixed up as things progress, but that’s my very early assessment of this offseason. Good luck Sabes!

(SB)

Big Questions

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Today and tomorrow I will examine the big questions that face the Giants this offseason. Today is simply the questions, tomorrow I will do my best to prognosticate what 2013 might look like. Here we go:

1) What can we expect from Tim Lincecum: the question isn’t really should he start or relieve, the question is can he regain his old form? More importantly, can he reinvent himself from a guy with nasty stuff to a great pitcher?

2) Can the rotation back up this post-season performance again: There’s no doubt that the Giants pitched well enough in 2011 to repeat. However they fell short due to a plethora of injuries that decimated the everyday lineup. But, as good as the pitching was during the post-season, there are questions about everybody: Lincecum (see above), Matt Cain (did he get tired this year, can he continue to carry the Ace mantle), Madison Bumgarner (can he regain velocity and put together a full season of dominance), Ryan Vogelsong (will the real Vogey please stand up…was his bad August/early September a sign that the bottom is falling out or just an aberration), and Barry Zito (can he do it again next year).

3) Can the lineup stay healthy: This is an overly simplistic view of reality, but there’s no denying the fact that in the two years the Giants have enjoyed Buster Posey’s presence in their lineup from June through October they won the World Series and in the one year he was out during that time they missed the playoffs. More to the point, this post-season demonstrated just how dynamic the middle of the lineup can be with Panda and Posey there and at full strength. So, Pablo can you stay in the lineup all season?

4) Will the Giants make the same mistakes from 2010: After winning the World Series the Giants allowed themselves to throw some objectivity out the window signing Aubrey Huff and Freddy Sanchez to new deals. Both of those guys were on the field celebrating in 2012 but had absolutely no impact on the games the team played. After 2011 Sabean and company shaped up a bit and made some more objective decisions, but rose-colored glasses could affect how they go after the holes in CF, LF, 2B, and in the bullpen.

5) Will the Giants make a splash in Free Agency: More and more money will be available and that money should probably go to a Buster Posey extension and a few other things, but the higher-ups could get excited about the buzz a Josh Hamilton signing would make. Do they go that direction or stick to the script that worked so well in 2010 and 2012?

We will tackle some of the answers tomorrow!

(-SB)

Pre-World Series Thoughts

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Here we go. It all begins tonight. Here are my thoughts on the series:

1) It’s going to be another long series. With the exception of the Tiger’s sweep of the Yanks, every post-season series (so, 5 of the 6) has gone to the max number of games. This series will end, one way or the other, in San Francisco.

2) Justin Verlander could be Cliff Lee. Verlander is by almost any measure a better pitcher than Cliff Lee. But remember back to 2010. Cliff Lee was absolutely untouchable. He was coming off an incredible 2009 run with the Phillies where he earned a reputation for post-season dominance and nearly helped the Phils repeat all by himself. He backed that up with great performances in the first two rounds of the 2010 post-season.

The Giants were at home. They were starting 2-time Cy Young Award winner, and staff ace, Tim Lincecum. And yet, the Rangers were overwhelming favorites to win game 1. But the Giants wnet out and put a hurting on Cliff Lee in the fifth inning. He left before the inning was over having allowed 7 runs (6 earned).

I’m not saying the same thing is going to happen, but again, if the Giants were going to be Cliff Lee it had to be 1-0 affair with a fluke run, not a drubbing. I think the Giants can get to Verlander in game 1. It’s on the road (for Justin). It’s seven days since he last pitched. He can be had.

3) I fully expect Madison Bumgarner to be a factor. He gets the game 2 nod and something tells me he pitches well.

4) Buster Posey needs to make an impact in this series.

5) The Tigers are doing the Giants a favor by holding Anibal Sanchez back to game 3. I’d have pitched him second if I were the Tigers.

6) These are both flawed teams. The Tigers are using the tried and true method of dominant starting pitching and power hitting. That always plays well in the post-season. But their bullpen and defense are huge weaknesses. The Giants have holes in the lineup. They have a patchwork rotation that can get the job done, but seems a far cry from two years ago. But, they have been opportunistic, relentless, and their bullpen has covered a multitude of sins. Something has to give.

7) On the topic of starting pitching: the Giants have had three strong starts in a row and had 5 strong starts in the Cardinals’ series. Going back to game 2 of the NLCS, it seems Vogelsong  started the one-upmanship that has come to define the Giants pitchers when they get on a roll. Overall the picture might not be that impressive, but they just might be in the middle of one of those runs where each guy is out to do just a little bit better than the last guy.

8) I am already worried about Andy Dirks and Omar Infante…those guys can be their Scutaro/Ross types in this series.

9) I wholeheartedly agree with Tim Lincecum being used out of the bullpen. He is a tremendous, series changing weapon in that role. If Zito and Madbum can hold their own, allowing Bochy to keep Timmy in the ‘pen then the Giants have everything they need to shut the Tiger offense down.

10) It will be a long series: Giants in 7.

(-SB)

Thoughts on Game 7, the Post-Season, and 2010 vs. 2012

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Wow. Just wow.

First, a couple of thoughts about this series.

A lot of people will talk/write about the breaks the Giants got, and they got a lot. (Note that the Cardinals got their fair share in the first half of the series). But, it is ALWAYS about pitching, and if you only allow 1 run over the course of three games you have a great chance of winning.

Marco Scutaro gets a well deserved MVP award. One of the amazing things about what he did (14 hits) is that he beat Will Clarks record of 13 in 1989. Clark did it in 5 games. Will Clark was pretty good.

Marco overshadows the work of Pablo Sandoval. The Panda had an RBI in each of the last 5 games of the series. That’s huge.

There was some argument between Scutaro and Vogelsong for MVP, but the guy who quietly has impressed me the most this post-season is Jeremy Affeldt. 8 straight scoreless appearances (more on this below).

—–

All post-season long I’ve been mulling over the differences between 2010 and 2012. 2010 will always be special because pre-2010 everything related to the Giants ended in pain and suffering. And in 2010 we stood on the brink of pain and suffering so many times. I spent three weeks simply waiting for the shoe to drop and everything to fall apart. Never happened. It’s been a new baseball reality for me ever since.

So, a couple of thoughts on the two teams/experiences…

1) I was way more stressed in 2010 than this time around. Seems weird to say: the 2010 team never faced elimination once. 6 times we’ve gone into a game this year thinking: “this could be it.” And yet, it hasn’t been that stressful. Game 5 against the Reds was the closest thing to “torture” so far.

2) 2010 will always be special because it was the first time I’ve experienced a Giants World Series win. But, this team is special too, mostly for all the things they’ve overcome. So proud of their spirit.

3) Which team is better? It’s too early to say, you can’t really argue until there’s a trophy. But let’s do it anyway. The 2010 had the dominant starting pitching and a strong bullpen. Wilson and Lopez in particular were amazing. 2010 also had home run hitters in the 3-8 spots. It was home runs, close games, starting pitching, and Wilson at the end.

2012 has been opportunistic offense, and just enough good pitching to win the right amount of games in each series. The big difference to me has been the bullpens. No one would argue that the 2010 ‘pen wasn’t good. But the 2012 version is more impressive to me. Having Tim Lincecum in the ‘pen is a huge weapon. And I would argue that the addition of Jose Mijares has allowed Bochy to really use Affeldt to his full potential. In 2010 the Giants faced lineups with really great lefties (Utley, Howard, Hamilton) and Bochy used his two lefties very effectively to neutralize those guys. But Affeldt is an incredible weapon: a left-handed reliever who get right-handers out and pitch multiple innings.

So, in many ways Bochy has had even more options and weapons in the ‘pen this time around which has helped cover for the less dominant starting pitching.

Again, which team is better? Hard to say…I’ll always put my money with strong starting pitching, so 2010 still has an edge, but I’ll get back to you on this after this WS is done.

—–

The Giants outscored the Cardinals 20-1 over the last three games. Send that back to June when Pablo was out, second, short, and first were black holes, and Melky Cabrera was the best hitter on this team.

—–

Should have more to say about the Series tomorrow. I  don’t think Tigers present any more of a challenge than the Reds or Cards, BUT neither of those teams have a Justin Verlander type ace. But then again, we’ve seen the Giants take down some unbeatable pitchers before.

Final thought: Buster Posey looked exhausted at the end of game 5 against the Reds and he has continued to look tired during the NLCS. But, the finish line is now firmly in sight and I have a feeling we will see an energized Buster in the World Series. Look for him to have some big moments on the grandest stage.

—–

Some Links:

Tom Verducci with some interesting thoughts especially about Bochy (see point #5)

What a Game 1 WS start would mean to Barry Zito

The Giants Win the Pennant by Grant Bisbee

Jeff Passan on the Cardinals collapse

A bunch of great tidbits from the Merc’s Alex Pavlovic

(-SB)

Game 7

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First: this and this. Two articles, one about Barry Zito, written a year too soon, and the other about Matt Cain. Fun for me to re-read, hopefully it is for you too.

It all makes sense now. Of course the Giants would sign Matt Cain to a big contract (the biggest to a right-handed pitcher ever. Chew on that for a minute. Then chew on this: how many dominant left-handers are still in the postseason? Not many. Interesting).

Of course Matt Cain would throw the first perfect game in Giants’ history.

Now maybe he can win the first Game 7.

Probably the craziest thing I’ve learned this post-season, and there have been many crazy things to learn, is this: the Giants have never won a Game 7. Not in New York, not in San Francisco. Not in 128 years of baseball. 0 and 5.

Two of those game sevens have come in my lifetime. The first baseball season I really remember was 1987, although I don’t have much memory of the post-season. I definitely remember the ’88 post-season. The A’s, the Dodgers. That stupid Gibson home run that I’ve had to watch highlights of all my life. But I don’t remember Game 7, 1987, against the Cardinals, at all. Probably for the best because it was tragic.

I do remember, more vividly than I would like, Game 7 against the Angels. The gut-punch of Game 6 was still fresh and you just knew, as much you hoped it wasn’t true, that there was no way they were going to win Game 7. And they never really came close.

2002 was a rough year, and that loss didn’t help. Not one bit. Total depression.

It’s 2012 and I live in a different baseball world. If the Giants lose tonight I will be bummed. This team has been so much fun to watch and I would love to see them take on the Tigers. But, I won’t be crushed if they lose.

So, here’s to Matt Cain. Back in 2006, when things had taken a turn for the worst, Matt Cain was a Giants’ fan great hope. One day, we dreamed, maybe we’d get to see Cain take the mound in a big playoff game. Our big ace. In our beautiful ballpark. It seemed too good to be true.

But now it is happening.

Game 7. The greatest show in sports.

Go Giants.

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Oh Glory! (or the Immortality of Buster Posey)

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I’ll be honest: after the Giants were bamboozled by Bronson Arroyo in Game 2 I figured it was over. Nice season Giants, thanks for the ride, loved it, but not every year is like 2010.

Not that many would have predicted the Giants could come back on the Reds, BUT this team has been overcoming adversity all year:

  • Their best player was coming off a career threatening injury. No one knew what exactly to expect from Buster this season.
  • They get swept in the first series of the season by the team everyone picked to win the division.
  • They lose their closer two weeks into the season, leaving huge bullpen questions to be answered.
  • Their ace has an awful first half and the worst season of his career.
  • They lose their All-Star left fielder (and first half MVP) to a season ending drug suspension.
  • They had offensive black holes at second base, shortstop, and first base for most of the season.
  • There were questions about Bumgarner and Vogelsong and the closer-by-committee approach and shouldn’t Hunter Pence be better and can they really win with a Blanco/Nady platoon in left field and on and on I could go.
  • The were the Dodgers making huge moves that were supposed to bury the Giants.
  • And then those first two games of this series…

Of course, they come back and win this thing. I agree with Joe Lemire…through it all Posey and Bochy stood tall and calmly led this team. I know the Hunter Pence pre-game speeches are getting a lot of press, but it is the calm hand of those two dudes that define the character of this team.

So, we move on…and they move on with confidence.

Some other thoughts:

  • It isn’t often that a player of Posey’s caliber gets a moment to do the kind of damage he did in game five. There are too many ways to mitigate a stars influence in baseball (see Bonds, Barry) and even if the moment presents itself this is still a game where a 30% success rate is awesome. But Buster came through. Someone, a while back, said the guy Buster is most like is Joe Montana. I only believe that more.
  • Remember when I wrote that the demise of this team would be the shortstop position. Well, Arias and Crawford are huge reasons the Giants live on. Crawford’s game 5 was particularly impressive given the pressure on Bochy to play Arias. Huge defensive plays, an RBI triple, and that at-bat against Chapman. That’s big-boy stuff.
  • Angel Pagan, I’m a believer.
  • Who would have thought the Giants could win a five game series in which Lincecum made no starts and no starter last through six innings. Both of those things need to change in the next round.
  • The key to the NLCS, in my opinion, is Madison Bumgarner. He needs to step up and dominate.

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Postseason! (An Ode to Buster Posey)

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In all honesty I am not tingling with anticipation about the postseason the way I was in 2010. Maybe it’s because I’m three weeks into being a dad and nothing quite compares with that. Maybe I’m jaded now that the Giants won the World Series. Maybe it’s something else.

Who knows, but I do know this: I will be pumped and ready for the game come Saturday night.

Here are some thoughts to close out the regular season as we prepare for the stress of post-season baseball:

  • Buster Posey is the MVP. You can read several articles on the web right now parsing the stats (like this one), but as much as I love stats it comes down to this for me: 2010 we had Posey, we won the division. 2011: no Posey, 86 wins, no playoffs. 2012: Posey, division champions. Simple. More to the point, when Posey got hot, post-all star game, the Giants took over the race and never looked back.
  • Adrian Gonzalez: sweet swing, solid player, but that three years in a row, three different teams, three times coming up short.
  • If you had of told me in 2010 the Giants will win it all, Torres and Huff and Burrell and Ross will be heroes, but Pablo Sandoval will disappear and be a non-factor, I would have believed it all except the Pablo part. NO WAY the Giants win without that guy in top form. Maybe this year that story line is repeated with Tim Lincecum.
  • You have to go Cain and MadBum 1-2 to start this series, but I really don’t like the options when the page turns to Cincinnati. Lincecum and Zito especially seemed destined to fail in that small ballpark.
  • Major props to the A’s. What a season, what a story!
  • Josh Hamilton will get a large contract this offseason but I just don’t see him being worth the money.
  • My predictions for tonight’s games: Braves over Cards 3-2 and Orioles over Rangers 4-3.

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