It’s been fascinating living in Boston this year, watching people react to the Red Sox. At first, it was apathetic (Napoli who?), than it was resignation (we’re going to suck again), then it was mild interest and excitement (we don’t suck), than it was sentimental (Boston strong and cute beards), then it got serious (playoffs!), and then it got out of control (the city nearly threw the parade after the game victory).
Now it’s back to worrying about curses, and can a team without stars actually win a world series (um, yes).
Anyway, those are just some thoughts, and now for the real heart of the matter: what this world series teaches our beloved SF Giants.
- The Red Sox Way:
We’ll begin here because their situation most closely resembles where the Giants are at right now. Last year everything fell apart for the Sox, which led to a major, house cleaning, trade with the Dodgers. In the wake of all that transition the Red Sox did two things: (a) take short term gambles on players who could potentially produce what the needed most (power, defense, and character). (b) they hoped and prayed their starting pitchers who used to be good, got good again.
This is applicable to the Giants because they do not have tons of money to spend on free agents. And there aren’t any big name free agents that really get your blood pumping. And recent history suggests it is very unwise to go all in on name brand free agents anyway (just ask the Angels).
In fact, the Red Sox stole strategy A from the Giants (Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross, Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell, Gregor Blanco, Marco Scutaro, etc). The Giants are going to need to replicate this success somehow this offseason.
And it sure looks like strategy B is where we are headed as well. The resign of Tim Lincecum follows the same kind of logic the Red Sox have employed with John Lackey and Jon Lester. Hope the magic comes back. And it has. I have no idea how, but it has. I’d be shocked if Ryan Vogelsong wasn’t in the rotation to start 2014. Same strategy.
Employing these two strategies together seems foolish (more on this later), but it worked for the Red Sox (and aren’t the Giants the Red Sox to the Dodgers Yankee’s in this crazy new baseball world?).
- The Cardinals Way:
The Cardinals are in the World Series (and are the best organization in baseball) because they produce their own quality players year in and year out. And there are more on the way. It’s actually quite scary and hard to fathom.
For a while this was the Giants‘ strategy. The core of the two championship teams includes a long list of home grown talent (Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Wilson, Romo, Posey, Sandoval, Belt, Crawford, even Jonathan Sanchez and Nate Schierholz helped with their play and by getting traded for good things).
And there is another wave coming, especially in the pitching department. But, not much help for 2014.
- And what about Moneyball?
This might seem like a non-sequitur, but hear me out. Let us all remember that Moneyball is not about on-base percentage, it is about market inefficiencies and exploiting resources other teams neglect.
Over the past couple of years, the Giants have (to the surprise of many around baseball) been on the front edge of a couple of trends: (a) run-prevention (i.e. pitching and defense), (b) minor-league free agent gold (like Juan Uribe or Santiago Casilla or Ryan Vogelsong), (c) dramatically undervalued veterans (like Aubrey Huff and Marco Scutaro), and (d) creating a contact heavy, low strikeout lineup.
[a quick aside about D. recent post-season history has borne out the reality that high contact teams are much better suited for playoff success than low contact/high power teams…the last 3 world series bear this out, as does the on-going frustrations of the Atlanta Braves and the Detroit Tigers, two teams that strikeout way too much. the current world series matchup is, perhaps, the greatest test of this to date: the Cardinals should win this series because they strike out dramatically less than the Red Sox. so far, games 1 and 2 hold true: whoever strikes out the most at the plate loses.]
All of which leads us to the Giants strategy this offseason: last year they pretty much brought everyone back and it didn’t work. So far, the are doubling down on that strategy and paying a steep price for it. Most pundits have been very critical of both contracts, seeing them as overpays and pre-reactions to a yet-to-be-determined market.
Are the Giants crazy, lazy, or are they on to something?
Both the Red Sox and the Cardinals are testament to the importance of doing hard things. Many, many people in Cardinal nation thought the world was coming to an end when Albert Pujols left. That turned out fairly well.
No one thought there was any way the Red Sox could really get out from underneath the mess they had made with bad contracts and bad hires. They did it (thanks to the Dodgers), and they went deep into the unknown and came out of it with a pennant.
The Giants, though, like to return to what they know. The did it with Barry Bonds, they did it with guys from the 2010 team and with the 2012 team. They are doing it again now.
I’d love to see them be bit less sentimental and more imaginative. However, the Giants have proven to be able to see things that others have not been able to see, and so maybe we’ll never regret paying Hunter Pence so much and maybe Tim Lincecum will pull a John Lackey.
In sum, every pennant winning team is a strange combination of design and great fortune, and if the Giants return to the heights in 2014 this will no doubt be true of them.
In a strange way they reflect both of these “ways” of team building. Here’s to hoping they do know what they are doing.
Great points. You’re spot-on about these two franchises, which is why they’ve both been to multiple WS in the past decade. The Red Sox are fortunate that they’ve had Papi and Pedroia cemented in that lineup for years… that’s a huge part of their success. But they’ve also been very keen in bringing in great complimentary pieces. The biggest thing, and the part the Giants should really be paying attention to, was their understanding that it takes some risks to build a subpar team back up… just like you pointed out. When you have cash, that becomes a little easier. The Giants have cash, and maybe they use to it go to war for Tanaka? Maybe Sabean deals Pablo for a young pitcher. I, like you, hope they are looking at creative ways to strengthen this squad. So far, they’ve been lacking a little in that department.
KG, thanks for commenting and love your blog.
I’d love Tanaka, but I do think a trade is coming. No idea who or what…Panda and Belt would net something of worth, but do we really want to trade those guys?
But to your conclusion: some creativity would be awesome.
Thanks for checking out the blog, much appreciated! I don’t know that I’m quite ready to give up on Pablo, and I certainly wouldn’t want to let Belt go at this point. But you’re right, those are two good chips, especially Pablo. Maybe you can swing a deal with the Yankees for a couple prospects, although Sabean generally doesn’t make trades like that. But I’ll guess that a handful of teams are willing to give up something decent for Pablo…