It’s election night, so to keep from going crazy let’s think about baseball!
I begin with the following premise: the free agent market is a dangerous trap of fools gold, dashed dreams, and sorrow. Last offseason the “winners” were the Angels and the Marlins and neither of them made the playoffs. Another winner was the Tigers and we all know how that ended.
However, teams that made good trades included the A’s, the Nationals, the Orioles, and…wait for it…the Giants. None of those trades made the kinds of headlines that Pujols and Wilson and Reyes and Fielder made, but they sure turned out really, really well for each team.
All that to say: bringing back Pagan and Scutaro and Affeldt and potentially filling the LF hold through FA doesn’t bode well for the Giants in the short, or, especially, the long-term.
I think the Giants will get Scutaro and get him at a decent value. I don’t know that the Giants get Pagan and even if they do it will almost assuredly be an overpay.
It’s time then to get creative! Here’s my thinking: I believe Anibal Sanchez is a value buy in this FA market. If the Giants could get him at 4 yrs/$52 mil I think that would be a steal. That signing would give the Giants 6 starting pitchers, making one expendable.
Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are not going anywhere. Barry Zito, redemption or not, is still pretty untradable, and even if he could be moved it wouldn’t bring much back other than salary relief. Ryan Vogelsong is interesting: he could bring back value due to his small contract, but I don’t see it happening.
That leaves Tim Lincecum.
Reasons NOT to Trade Tim Lincecum:
- He just had a horrible season and his value is at all time low.
- He is owed $20+ million next year so he can probably only be traded to a rich team or else the Giants will have to eat salary.
- He is, in many ways, still the face of the franchise.
- Tim Lincecum, when he is right, is better than Anibal Sanchez.
Reasons TO Trade Tim Lincecum
- In addition to what I mentioned above, I think there are two interesting scenarios for the Giants. The first is to try to match up with a team like the Royals/Twins/Cleveland who desperately need pitching. The Giants throw in the cash to cover the salary and steal an Alex Gordon-type player (plus a reliever) to cover an outfield spot and bolster the bullpen. The Giants don’t have to deal with Tim’s drama if things don’t go well and actually get something in return for a player who will hit FA after 2013.
- Now, here is where I really want to go. The Giants should trade Lincecum to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury. I have a secret fantasy of Ellsbury and Gary Brown at the top of the Giants lineup. Ellsbury is in a similar place to Lincecum: a year away from FA, some impressive years under his belt, but still with something to prove. The Red Sox need pitching, the Giants might need help in the outfield and at the top of the order. The trade allows both teams time decide if they want to commit to each player long-term. If it doesn’t work out, it was only a year.
Undoubtedly, the best case scenario for the Giants is that Tim Linceucm comes back strong and pitched like 2010 Timmy. But, creative trades paved the way for many successful teams last year and might be the right antidote to a crazy, overspending spree on the near horizon.
Or not: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/red-sox-disinclined-to-trade-jacoby-ellsbury.html
I know the Royals need pitching, but why would they trade four more years of control of Gordon, plus another player, for one year of Tim Lincecum? Not happening.
Royals make a deal if they (a) feel they are one arm from contending, and (b) think they have a shot at extending him.
Otherwise, you are absolutely right.
see: shields, james. glad timmy is still a giant.
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